32 Ferris Wheel Dr · West Amwell, NJ 08530

$925,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 1.00 ac lot Est $748k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached side-entry garage with inside access and garage door opener; Two garage spaces; Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: Public water; On-site septic; Electric cooling; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Built by CENTEX
• Construction: Aluminum siding and stone exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Patio(s); Porch(es); Shed; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Cooktop; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fans; Curved staircase; Upgraded countertops; Sprinkler system; Kitchen island; Formal separate dining room; Walk-in shower in bathroom; Soaking tub; Tub/shower combination; Additional stairway; Cathedral ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $925k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($159k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $925k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Hunterdon Regional School District (rural): math 13% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #335 of 472 in NJ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $259k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 61% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $562k; list at $925k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $925,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.45%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $748,064
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Culture Ct	0.24mi	4/2.5	3,211 (+3%)	13mo	$793,000	$247	72
247 N Main St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	3,270 (+5%)	2mo	$740,000	$226	48
2 Allen St	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,756 (-11%)	6mo	$664,500	$241	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $695,281
• Equity at exit: $137,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.54×
• Total profit: $1,695,081
• Equity at exit: $79,977

Cash invested: $259,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08530

• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,851
• Tax from tax record: −$1,331 /mo · $15,975/yr
• Insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,271
• Net cashflow: $13,262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,313

Max offer price $925,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13,786	-5% $13,524	+0% $13,262	+5% $13,001	+10% $12,739
Rent	-10% $11,279	-5% $12,271	+0% $13,262	+5% $14,254	+10% $15,245
Rate	-1.0pp $13,728	-0.5pp $13,498	base $13,262	+0.5pp $13,023	+1.0pp $12,779

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $231,250
• Closing costs: $27,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Arnett Ave Unit 1380124P Lambertville, NJ	4.0	2.0	2497	$25,101	$10.05	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $925,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $925,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $925,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $925,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $925,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   remarks 692-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   listed $925,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,975 · $1,331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,504 · $1,625/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,529/yr (+$294/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $301,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,814
• − Property taxes: −$15,975
• − Insurance: −$4,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,097
• − Management: −$24,097
• − Depreciation: −$26,909
• Taxable income: $153,695
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$36,887
• After-tax cash flow: $122,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Hunterdon Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3400769
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $82,621
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6948
• State rank: #335 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Amwell

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,146

Population outlook (Hunterdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,644 people
• By 2030: 121,131 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 117,753 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 112,601 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 104,371 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 93,364 · -23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunterdon

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.7% · R 52.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+13.8 2012: R+18.8 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.68%
• Current HPI: 226.5618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+60.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $925,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $562,500 Public Records
• 2015-03-06 Sold (MLS) $562,500 GSMLS
• 2015-03-06 Sold (MLS) $562,500 TREND
• 2015-03-06 Sold (MLS) $562,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-01-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-06-02 Listed $575,000 TREND
• 2014-06-02 Listed $575,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,975 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.