57292 Poppy Rd · South Bend, IN 46619

$169,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1959 0.65 ac lot Est $169k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Estate- 1 owner ranch home in Warren Twp. ! 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. The home needs some updating and is priced to sell! Eat-in kitchen. Hardwood floors. Master BR with bath. 1st floor or basement laundry. Covered front porch. 24x24 garage. New roof 1 year(A & M Roofing). Vinyl siding, Gas heat and central air. Soil test have been done and a new septic will be going in soon. Nice big lot(115x248). Large double wide concrete driveway. Great county neighborhood!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Gas heat
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• NEW ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• GAS HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($975/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in South Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#365 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• South Bend Community School Corporation (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #284 of 301 in IN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #989 of 994 statewide, top 100%, 411 students, 90% FRL); Navarre Middle School (math 0% / reading 4%, grade F, #330 of 330 statewide, top 100%, 519 students, 83% FRL); Washington High School (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #315 of 369 statewide, top 86%, 834 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $142,680 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,818
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57292 Poppy Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,118 (0%)	1mo	$169,000	$151	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-22,261
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,935
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46619

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,071/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $129	+0% $81	+5% $33	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $25	+0% $81	+5% $138	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $124	base $81	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 17.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,071
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$460
• After-tax cash flow: $1,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Bend Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810290
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,935
• Composite: 14.21/100
• National rank: #9452
• State rank: #284 of 301 in IN

Livability — South Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #13730

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 99,767
• Population (ZIP): 21,179

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 273,186 people
• By 2030: 273,594 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 271,641 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 269,187 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 263,136 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 245,659 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 37% Black 19% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% English 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 30% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.1pp · 2024: 1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.16%
• Current HPI: 223.6464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $169,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,071 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.