618 Live Oak St · Shelby, NC 28150

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1925 10,454 sqft lot Est $160k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property or starter home. Three bedrooms with one bath, covered porch and rear deck make this home a must have, large backyard and close to downtown and schools.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.9% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#52 in NC, #4,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Cleveland County Schools (rural): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #76 of 178 in NC (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elizabeth Elementary (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #959 of 1,410 statewide, top 68%, 569 students, 100% FRL); Shelby High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #427 of 535 statewide, top 81%, 825 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cleveland County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 461 units permitted in Cleveland County in 2024 (38 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cleveland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.14%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
821 Hamrick St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,001 (-1%)	2mo	$118,000	$118	78
312 Clegg St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (0%)	1mo	$110,000	$109	72
304 Grice St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+2%)	7mo	$130,000	$126	71
412 Tracy St	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,022 (+1%)	2mo	$173,000	$169	68
359 Grice St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (+2%)	0mo	$88,000	$86	60
1122 Bridges St	0.68mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	1mo	$188,000	$196	60
1104 Silver St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+8%)	1mo	$210,000	$193	58
417 W Graham St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,108 (+10%)	2mo	$178,000	$161	56
501 Franklin Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-1%)	9mo	$159,000	$159	53
521 Gold St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+3%)	9mo	$82,000	$79	53
804 Broad St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,126 (+12%)	3mo	$180,000	$160	44
505 Franklin Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,135 (+13%)	10mo	$140,000	$123	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,441
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $52,358
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28150

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $934

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $343	+0% $309	+5% $276	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $257	+0% $309	+5% $362	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $340	base $309	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $119,000 Active
3. 2026-02-25
   historical $119,000
4. 2022-09-02
   soldstatus $110,000
5. 2022-09-01
   soldstatus $110,000 Closed 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Great investment property or starter home. Three bedrooms with one bath, covered porch and rear deck make this home a must have, large backyard and close to downtown and schools.

6. 2022-07-02
   historical Active Under Contract 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Great investment property or starter home. Three bedrooms with one bath, covered porch and rear deck make this home a must have, large backyard and close to downtown and schools.

7. 2022-06-23
   listed $115,000 Active 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   Great investment property or starter home. Three bedrooms with one bath, covered porch and rear deck make this home a must have, large backyard and close to downtown and schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$207/yr (+$17/mo · 26.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$448
• After-tax cash flow: $3,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700900
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,501
• Composite: 40.03/100
• National rank: #3823
• State rank: #76 of 178 in NC

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #4349

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelby, NC
• County: Cleveland County · 83,736 people
• City population: 26,134
• Metro: Shelby, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,142
• Household income: $55,832
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 790.0

Population outlook (Cleveland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,671 people
• By 2030: 91,157 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 85,519 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 79,708 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 68,317 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 57,145 · -39.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleveland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.0) · D 32.2% · R 67.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.9pp · 2024: -35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+30.6 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.92%
• Current HPI: 447.16
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.66%
• Metro: Shelby, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+3.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $119,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Coming Soon $119,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-01 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-02 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-23 Listed $115,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · +147.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.