3342 Sycamore Tree Ln · Erlanger, KY 41018

$204,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1979 0.26 ac lot $136/sqft · 16% below area Est $245k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Erlanger! This property offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle with convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and major highways. A perfect opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.8% in Erlanger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#126 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $205k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $192,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.50%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,743
• List price: $204,900
• Delta: -16.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3358 Spruce Tree Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,480 (-2%)	12mo	$295,000	$199	80
3389 Spruce Tree Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,406 (-7%)	6mo	$205,000	$146	72
689 Peach Tree Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+10%)	1mo	$282,500	$170	64
3377 Cedar Tree Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+13%)	9mo	$240,000	$141	62
3385 Spruce Tree Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,352 (-10%)	18mo	$250,000	$185	57
682 Maple Tree Ln	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,348 (-11%)	16mo	$217,500	$161	49
759 Plum Tree Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-14%)	16mo	$225,000	$173	44
579 Erlanger Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,435 (-5%)	10mo	$260,000	$181	43
670 Cypress Ct	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,308 (-13%)	20mo	$255,000	$195	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,990
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $26,080
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41018

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,235/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,599

Max offer price $204,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $427	-5% $369	+0% $311	+5% $253	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $232	+0% $311	+5% $390	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $363	base $311	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
682 Mimosa Ct Erlanger, KY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,136	$1.33	8d	1	0.27mi
3341 Mineola Pike Erlanger, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,100	$2.22	2d	98	1.13mi
4787 Houston Rd Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,316	$2.26	3d	25	1.34mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $204,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $204,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $219,900 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Erlanger! This property offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle with convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and major highways. A perfect opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize!

15. 2026-05-01
    price $224,900 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Erlanger! This property offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle with convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and major highways. A perfect opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize!

16. 2026-04-04
    listed $229,900 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Erlanger! This property offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and plenty of natural light throughout. Enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle with convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and major highways. A perfect opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize!

17. 2021-07-20
    soldstatus $120,000
18. 2021-07-13
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Spacious* New Paint* New Carpet*Master Bed Room has laminated flooring * Best Value in NKY* Fenced Yard w/ Shed* Carport* Easy Access to Interstate * Will not go FHA or VA * Needs some work but livable *Oven/Range *Refrigerator *Seller Needs 2 Weeks After Closing to Move Out

19. 2021-06-05
    status Pending 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Spacious* New Paint* New Carpet*Master Bed Room has laminated flooring * Best Value in NKY* Fenced Yard w/ Shed* Carport* Easy Access to Interstate * Will not go FHA or VA * Needs some work but livable *Oven/Range *Refrigerator *Seller Needs 2 Weeks After Closing to Move Out

20. 2021-06-03
    listed $119,000 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Spacious* New Paint* New Carpet*Master Bed Room has laminated flooring * Best Value in NKY* Fenced Yard w/ Shed* Carport* Easy Access to Interstate * Will not go FHA or VA * Needs some work but livable *Oven/Range *Refrigerator *Seller Needs 2 Weeks After Closing to Move Out

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,235 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,762 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 42.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$1,235
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable income: $382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$92
• After-tax cash flow: $3,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenton County
• NCES district ID: 2103090
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $66,183
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #3789
• State rank: #14 of 165 in KY

Livability — Erlanger

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #5933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erlanger, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 28,940
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,940
• Household income: $68,605
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 678.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.57%
• Current HPI: 215.9599
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.22%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+84.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $219,900 NKMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $224,900 NKMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $229,900 NKMLS
• 2021-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-13 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NKMLS
• 2021-06-05 Pending — NKMLS
• 2021-06-03 Listed $119,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,235 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.