4200 Harlowe Dr · Midland, TX 79703

$229,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,434 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1955 8,973 sqft lot Est $292k · 21% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this updated four-bedroom, three-bathroom retreat that's ready to make your heart skip a beat. SO MUCH NEW! Roof, A/C, heater, kitchen, all three bathrooms. Spanning over 2,400 square feet of living space, this home delivers the perfect blend of comfort and style. The extra large den steals the show with its cozy fireplace, creating an irresistible gathering spot. Schedule your private showing today and discover your next chapter.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New heater
• New a/c

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C
• NEW HEATER
• NEW KITCHEN
• EXTRA LARGE DEN
• COZY FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long El (math 36% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 667 students, 80% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4411 Leddy Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,453 (+1%)	17mo	$295,000	$120	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,907
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,009
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,783/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,046

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $370	+0% $305	+5% $240	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $209	+0% $305	+5% $401	+10% $497
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $363	base $305	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4317 Tanner Dr Unit A Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2220	$2,650	$1.19	22d	1	0.25mi
4515 Monty Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	44d	1	0.42mi
4603 Mercedes Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,199	$1.32	22d	1	0.50mi
3900 Douglas Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$2,800	$1.43	44d	1	1.01mi
3105 Barkley Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,350	$1.36	14d	1	1.08mi
3619 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	14d	1	1.26mi
4732 Harvard Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2248	$2,600	$1.16	22d	1	1.26mi
909 Beal Pkwy Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	22d	1	1.35mi
1813 McDonald St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,249	$1.34	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $229,900
3. 2026-03-02
   price $259,900
4. 2026-01-16
   listed $274,900 Active
5. 2007-09-11
   soldstatus
6. 2007-07-12
   soldstatus
7. 2006-09-27
   soldstatus
8. 1997-02-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,207 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$425/yr (+$35/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,783
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,335
• − Management: −$2,335
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $20
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5
• After-tax cash flow: $3,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $229,900 PBBOR
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $259,900 PBBOR
• 2026-01-16 Listed $274,900 PBBOR
• 2007-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,783 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.