423 Lafond Ave · St. Paul, MN 55103

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1973 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed, 1 bath single family starter home. Fenced yard. Hardwood floors. Category 2 registered vacant building. Needs complete rehab. Centrally located in the heart of St. Paul - only a few blocks from the Lightrail.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Light rail access
• Functional layout

Tags

• FROGTOWN NEIGHBORHOOD
• LIGHT RAIL ACCESS
• FENCED YARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• CONVENIENT CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel/other surface
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Block foundation
• Construction: Above-grade finished area listed; Below-grade area listed
• Exterior features: Wood exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Finished basement; Dining room; Family room; Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $880 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,139/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 787% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $188k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $227,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.04%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $21,332
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $104,900
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55103

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,236/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $880

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,025

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,013	-5% $946	+0% $880	+5% $813	+10% $747
Rent	-10% $632	-5% $756	+0% $880	+5% $1,004	+10% $1,128
Rate	-1.0pp $998	-0.5pp $939	base $880	+0.5pp $819	+1.0pp $757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	2d	23	0.76mi
253 Kellogg Blvd W Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1208	$3,198	$2.65	3d	12	1.22mi
101 10th St E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,490	$2.81	2d	25	1.25mi
695 Grand Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$5,795	$5.13	18d	10	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $235,000 Active 252-char remark
15. 2021-04-02
    soldstatus $188,000
16. 2013-10-02
    soldstatus $124,000
17. 2012-10-19
    soldstatus $35,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath single family starter home. Fenced yard. Hardwood floors. Category 2 registered vacant building. Needs complete rehab. Centrally located in the heart of St. Paul - only a few blocks from the Lightrail.

18. 2012-08-22
    historical 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath single family starter home. Fenced yard. Hardwood floors. Category 2 registered vacant building. Needs complete rehab. Centrally located in the heart of St. Paul - only a few blocks from the Lightrail.

19. 2012-08-07
    listed $20,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath single family starter home. Fenced yard. Hardwood floors. Category 2 registered vacant building. Needs complete rehab. Centrally located in the heart of St. Paul - only a few blocks from the Lightrail.

20. 2012-02-21
    historical
21. 2011-09-07
    listed $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,236
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,013
• − Management: −$3,013
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $7,228
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,735
• After-tax cash flow: $8,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,125
• Household income: $48,390
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 787.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 28% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Vietnam, Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 16% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.28%
• Current HPI: 327.7672
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+696.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $235,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $188,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-19 Sold (MLS) $35,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-07 Listed $20,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-07 Listed $29,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,236 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.