Cortland Plan · Hamlin, NY 14464

$128,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 556 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 556 days

🏗️ New construction. The $128,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $39,002.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.4% vs local median 4.1% in Hamlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#557 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Brockport Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #369 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ginther Elementary School (535 students, 44% FRL); A D Oliver Middle School (math 27% / reading 58%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 685 students, 48% FRL); Brockport High School (math 97% / reading 77%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 946 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brockport Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 556 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $113,432 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 556 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.44%
• DSCR: 4.67
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,002
• List price: $128,900
• Delta: 230.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 Locust Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-7%)	8mo	$64,000	$51	71
5 Dogwood Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	22mo	$69,000	$49	70
5 Oak Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	20mo	$107,000	$88	65
306 Sandy Brook Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-12%)	13mo	$40,000	$34	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $41,481
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.95×
• Total profit: $97,727
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,921 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14464

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $39,002

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $777	-5% $764	+0% $750	+5% $737	+10% $723
Rent	-10% $648	-5% $699	+0% $750	+5% $801	+10% $852
Rate	-1.0pp $770	-0.5pp $760	base $750	+0.5pp $740	+1.0pp $730

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,751
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $128,900 Active 556 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,900 Active 553 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,900 Active 552 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,900 Active 551 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,900 Active 550 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,900 Active 548 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,900 Active 547 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,900 Active 545 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,900 Active 544 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $128,900 Active 543 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,900 Active 542 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,900 Active 538 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,900 Active 537 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,900 Active 536 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,900 Active 535 DOM
16. 2024-12-13
    listed $128,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $8,912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,139
• After-tax cash flow: $6,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovations, including kitchen and bathroom updates, roof and exterior siding replacement, and interior wall repairs. Significant value can be added through these improvements, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinetry — Severe wear and tear, likely requiring replacement.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Signs of wear and possible mold, requiring replacement or repair.
• Major Roof — Visible damage, likely requiring replacement.
• Major Exterior siding — Severe peeling and wear, requiring repainting or replacement.
• Major Flooring — Worn and possibly damaged, requiring replacement or refinishing.
• Major Interior walls — Peeling paint and possible mold, requiring repainting or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A new kitchen will significantly enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms will improve the home's overall appeal and functionality.
• Both Exterior painting — Fresh paint will improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinetry · Severe wear and tear, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Signs of wear and possible mold, requiring replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Visible damage, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Severe peeling and wear, requiring repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and possibly damaged, requiring replacement or refinishing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Peeling paint and possible mold, requiring repainting or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A new kitchen will significantly enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms will improve the home's overall appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Exterior painting — Fresh paint will improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brockport Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605580
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,571
• Composite: 43.28/100
• National rank: #3044
• State rank: #369 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hamlin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #10030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamlin, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,725

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.89%
• Current HPI: 248.1985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Listed $128,900 Zillow