429 Camas Creek Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$219,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2020 6,194 sqft lot $139/sqft · 19% below area Est $271k · 19% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Larkspur features a eat-in kitchen that overlooks the large family room. The downstairs master suite offers a sunny bay window, a separate garden tub and shower with a dual sink vanity and a huge walk-in closet. The upstairs game room is adjacent to the three secondary bedrooms which each feature a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on your covered rear patio that is pre-plumbed with a gas line for your future outdoor grill.

Key facts

• 6,194 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community association: Montage Community Services; Annual association fee; Community amenities include dog park, playground, and park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for security; Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2020
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fence; Sprinkler/irrigation; Cul-de-sac lot; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second floor) — 14 x 14; Bedroom (second floor) — 13 x 10; Bedroom (second floor) — 13 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; HVAC included
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bathroom with separate shower and soaking tub; Pantry; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,798 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.12%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,106
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -19.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
716 Autumn Cherry Trl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-6%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	69
928 Gentle Moss Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-1%)	1mo	$239,000	$154	68
706 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+2%)	0mo	$258,990	$161	64
574 Bluebell Maiden Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+3%)	1mo	$269,990	$167	62
715 Michelia St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+1%)	2mo	$285,990	$180	61
715 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	1mo	$240,990	$170	55
719 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-10%)	1mo	$245,990	$175	54
309 Cumberland Forest Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,788 (+14%)	1mo	$265,000	$148	51
924 Songbird Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	1mo	$242,990	$171	47
920 Songbird Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-10%)	1mo	$244,990	$174	46
31814 Oak Xing	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+14%)	0mo	$264,900	$148	43
232 Ashley Branch St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+13%)	1mo	$291,990	$164	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $94,528
• Equity at exit: $197,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $285,272
• Equity at exit: $425,469

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$550 /mo · $6,602/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,326

Max offer price $163,798

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-251	+0% $-312	+5% $-374	+10% $-436
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-389	+0% $-312	+5% $-236	+10% $-160
Rate	-1.0pp $-202	-0.5pp $-257	base $-312	+0.5pp $-369	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	22d	1	0.42mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	44d	1	0.44mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	25d	1	0.45mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	22d	1	0.46mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	44d	1	0.47mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	0.56mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	5d	1	0.66mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	0.83mi
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,000 Pending 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,000 Pending 38 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $219,000 Pending 37 DOM
5. 2026-04-24
   listed $235,000 Active
6. 2020-06-24
   soldstatus Sold 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   The Larkspur features a eat-in kitchen that overlooks the large family room. The downstairs master suite offers a sunny bay window, a separate garden tub and shower with a dual sink vanity and a huge walk-in closet. The upstairs game room is adjacent to the three secondary bedrooms which each feature a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on your covered rear patio that is pre-plumbed with a gas line for your future outdoor grill.

7. 2020-05-04
   status Pending 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   The Larkspur features a eat-in kitchen that overlooks the large family room. The downstairs master suite offers a sunny bay window, a separate garden tub and shower with a dual sink vanity and a huge walk-in closet. The upstairs game room is adjacent to the three secondary bedrooms which each feature a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on your covered rear patio that is pre-plumbed with a gas line for your future outdoor grill.

8. 2020-04-23
   price $214,990 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   The Larkspur features a eat-in kitchen that overlooks the large family room. The downstairs master suite offers a sunny bay window, a separate garden tub and shower with a dual sink vanity and a huge walk-in closet. The upstairs game room is adjacent to the three secondary bedrooms which each feature a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on your covered rear patio that is pre-plumbed with a gas line for your future outdoor grill.

9. 2020-03-31
   listed $218,990 Active 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   The Larkspur features a eat-in kitchen that overlooks the large family room. The downstairs master suite offers a sunny bay window, a separate garden tub and shower with a dual sink vanity and a huge walk-in closet. The upstairs game room is adjacent to the three secondary bedrooms which each feature a walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on your covered rear patio that is pre-plumbed with a gas line for your future outdoor grill.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,602 · $550/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,602 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$6,602
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$7,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,788
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-23 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2020-03-31 Listed $218,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+59.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,602 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.