20683 Waalew Rd Unit B145 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$32,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1985 924 sqft lot $35/sqft · 49% below area Est $63k · 49% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPER!!! motivated seller has reduced the price to $37,500 Located in the scenic highlands of Apple Valley, this Mobil home in the Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park offers incredible potential at an unbeatable price. Los Ranchos is a welcoming, all-age, pet-friendly community featuring a beautiful lake, a community park, a sparkling pool, BBQ area, and plenty of guest parking—perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The home, originally built in 1985, is recorded as a 2-bedroom, 2-bath property, but has been modified to include 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, giving you extra living space. Ideal for first time buyers looking to create their own cozy retreat or invest in a property with excellent value. Conveniently close to Target, Walmart, restaurants, and local shopping, this home combines comfort with accessibility. Offered at just $39,900 this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.8% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 144.50%
• DSCR: 7.43
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,053
• List price: $32,000
• Delta: -49.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B188	0.00mi	2/2.0	930 (+1%)	16mo	$67,000	$72	86
20683 Waalew Unit B-84	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (-13%)	2mo	$59,000	$74	76
20683 Waalew #59	0.17mi	2/2.0	821 (-11%)	2mo	$55,000	$67	72
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C14	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	972 (+5%)	7mo	$64,000	$66	64
20843 Waalew #39	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+13%)	3mo	$55,000	$53	64
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C146	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	11mo	$85,000	$80	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.55×
• Total profit: $67,678
• Equity at exit: $4,771

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.45×
• Total profit: $165,317
• Equity at exit: $2,767

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $214/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $1,079

Break-even live

Break-even rent $252

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21225 Wigwam Rd Unit 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	43d	1	1.02mi
15866 Sago Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	996	$1,750	$1.76	24d	1	1.12mi
15728 Sago Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	24d	1	1.26mi
20316 Rimrock Rd E Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,450	$1.78	43d	1	1.40mi
20130 Rimrock Rd E Apt B Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	20d	1	1.44mi
20236 Pawhuska Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,000 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $32,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $32,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $32,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,000 Active 261 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $32,000 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    FIXER UPER!!! motivated seller has reduced the price to $37,500 Located in the scenic highlands of Apple Valley, this Mobil home in the Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park offers incredible potential at an unbeatable price. Los Ranchos is a welcoming, all-age, pet-friendly community featuring a beautiful lake, a community park, a sparkling pool, BBQ area, and plenty of guest parking—perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The home, originally built in 1985, is recorded as a 2-bedroom, 2-bath property, but has been modified to include 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, giving you extra living space. Ideal for first time buyers looking to create their own cozy retreat or invest in a property with excellent value. Conveniently close to Target, Walmart, restaurants, and local shopping, this home combines comfort with accessibility. Offered at just $39,900 this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

16. 2026-01-10
    price $37,500 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    FIXER UPER!!! motivated seller has reduced the price to $37,500 Located in the scenic highlands of Apple Valley, this Mobil home in the Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park offers incredible potential at an unbeatable price. Los Ranchos is a welcoming, all-age, pet-friendly community featuring a beautiful lake, a community park, a sparkling pool, BBQ area, and plenty of guest parking—perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The home, originally built in 1985, is recorded as a 2-bedroom, 2-bath property, but has been modified to include 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, giving you extra living space. Ideal for first time buyers looking to create their own cozy retreat or invest in a property with excellent value. Conveniently close to Target, Walmart, restaurants, and local shopping, this home combines comfort with accessibility. Offered at just $39,900 this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

17. 2025-10-28
    price $39,900 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    FIXER UPER!!! motivated seller has reduced the price to $37,500 Located in the scenic highlands of Apple Valley, this Mobil home in the Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park offers incredible potential at an unbeatable price. Los Ranchos is a welcoming, all-age, pet-friendly community featuring a beautiful lake, a community park, a sparkling pool, BBQ area, and plenty of guest parking—perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The home, originally built in 1985, is recorded as a 2-bedroom, 2-bath property, but has been modified to include 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, giving you extra living space. Ideal for first time buyers looking to create their own cozy retreat or invest in a property with excellent value. Conveniently close to Target, Walmart, restaurants, and local shopping, this home combines comfort with accessibility. Offered at just $39,900 this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

18. 2025-09-12
    listed $47,000 Active 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    FIXER UPER!!! motivated seller has reduced the price to $37,500 Located in the scenic highlands of Apple Valley, this Mobil home in the Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park offers incredible potential at an unbeatable price. Los Ranchos is a welcoming, all-age, pet-friendly community featuring a beautiful lake, a community park, a sparkling pool, BBQ area, and plenty of guest parking—perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The home, originally built in 1985, is recorded as a 2-bedroom, 2-bath property, but has been modified to include 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, giving you extra living space. Ideal for first time buyers looking to create their own cozy retreat or invest in a property with excellent value. Conveniently close to Target, Walmart, restaurants, and local shopping, this home combines comfort with accessibility. Offered at just $39,900 this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

19. 2025-09-11
    price $47,000 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    FIXER UPER!!! motivated seller has reduced the price to $37,500 Located in the scenic highlands of Apple Valley, this Mobil home in the Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park offers incredible potential at an unbeatable price. Los Ranchos is a welcoming, all-age, pet-friendly community featuring a beautiful lake, a community park, a sparkling pool, BBQ area, and plenty of guest parking—perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The home, originally built in 1985, is recorded as a 2-bedroom, 2-bath property, but has been modified to include 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, giving you extra living space. Ideal for first time buyers looking to create their own cozy retreat or invest in a property with excellent value. Conveniently close to Target, Walmart, restaurants, and local shopping, this home combines comfort with accessibility. Offered at just $39,900 this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

20. 2025-08-23
    historical $39,000 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    FIXER UPER!!! motivated seller has reduced the price to $37,500 Located in the scenic highlands of Apple Valley, this Mobil home in the Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park offers incredible potential at an unbeatable price. Los Ranchos is a welcoming, all-age, pet-friendly community featuring a beautiful lake, a community park, a sparkling pool, BBQ area, and plenty of guest parking—perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The home, originally built in 1985, is recorded as a 2-bedroom, 2-bath property, but has been modified to include 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, giving you extra living space. Ideal for first time buyers looking to create their own cozy retreat or invest in a property with excellent value. Conveniently close to Target, Walmart, restaurants, and local shopping, this home combines comfort with accessibility. Offered at just $39,900 this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $214 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $243 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$30/yr (+$2/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$214
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $13,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,170
• After-tax cash flow: $9,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $32,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $37,500 CRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $39,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $47,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $47,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-23 Coming Soon $39,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $214 · -65.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.