17163 Starstone Dr · Broadway, VA 22815

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 693 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1989 2.57 ac lot $144/sqft · 46% below area Est $185k · 46% under $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cabin opportunity in the Sundance Forest community. Situated on over 2.5 acres, this property offers a peaceful, wooded setting with abundant wildlife and a true sense of privacy. The home needs TLC and is priced with that in mind, presenting a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create a weekend retreat or tucked-away full-time residence. Solid upside potential in a serene setting.

Key facts

• Sense of privacy
• Abundant wildlife
• Wooded setting

Tags

• OVER 2.5 ACRES
• WOODED SETTING
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE
• SENSE OF PRIVACY
• SERENE SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with an annual fee of $300; Association lists no amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Shared well water; Community/coop sewer and shared septic; Other utilities
• Home design: Detached single-story home; One level
• Construction: Stick-built construction with T1-11 siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Masonry wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.9% in Broadway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in VA, #4,225 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fulks Run Elementary (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 138 students, 86% FRL); J. Frank Hillyard Middle (math 51% / reading 59%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 665 students, 49% FRL); Broadway High (math 68% / reading 79%, grade B+, #124 of 319 statewide, top 40%, 923 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 32% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.18%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,743
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -45.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17341 Starstone Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0	693 (0%)	8mo	$165,000	$238	86
17125 Starstone Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0	693 (0%)	19mo	$192,000	$277	83
9773 Idas Ln	0.44mi	2/1.0	693 (0%)	12mo	$240,000	$346	70
9771 Idas Ln	0.48mi	2/1.0	693 (0%)	13mo	$225,500	$325	67
17269 Sundance Forest Rd	0.60mi	1/1.0 (-1)	650 (-6%)	17mo	$120,000	$185	42
18060 Sundance Forest Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0	768 (+11%)	8mo	$117,000	$152	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $12,288
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $47,366
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22815

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $829

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $475	+0% $447	+5% $419	+10% $391
Rent	-10% $337	-5% $392	+0% $447	+5% $502	+10% $557
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $473	base $447	+0.5pp $421	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $99,900 Active 402-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $819 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,987
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$957
• After-tax cash flow: $4,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockingham County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,178
• Composite: 47.58/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #77 of 131 in VA

Livability — Broadway

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #4225

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,716

Population outlook (Rockingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,435 people
• By 2030: 85,223 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 87,667 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 88,550 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 90,331 · +8.3%
• By 2100: 85,122 · +2.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 30.9% · R 68.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+43.5 2012: R+40.6 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.93%
• Current HPI: 183.4499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HRAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $99,900 HRAR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $774 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.