The Nantucket Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$191,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Nantucket is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. It offers 3 bedrooms - all upstairs - with sizeable walk-in closets in the primary suite and one of the spare bedrooms as well as 2.5 bathrooms. Downstairs, homebuyers love the open-concept family room, kitchen, and dining room combination ideal for welcoming guests and relaxing at home.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 62 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• SIZEABLE WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $191,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $223,599.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $192k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,470 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,599
• List price: $191,990
• Delta: -14.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22565 Cormorant Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+0%)	1mo	$205,000	$151	96
22740 American Kestrel Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$190,990	$140	89
22736 American Kestrel Ct	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	3mo	$194,990	$143	88
22820 American Kestrel Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$193,990	$143	83
22824 American Kestrel Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$194,990	$143	83
22816 American Kestrel Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	2mo	$194,990	$143	83
13674 Kit Run	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-2%)	2mo	$204,990	$154	73
13678 Kit Run	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+4%)	3mo	$219,990	$156	69
13991 Manatee St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-7%)	3mo	$189,900	$150	56
13667 Kit Run	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+14%)	2mo	$234,990	$151	52
23165 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+10%)	3mo	$229,990	$154	48
23157 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+13%)	1mo	$234,990	$153	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,213
• Equity at exit: $33,339

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-44,383
• Equity at exit: $19,333

Cash invested: $62,608 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,173
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,354/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $209,947

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,900
• Closing costs: $6,708
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $191,990 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $191,990 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $191,990 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $191,990 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $191,990 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $191,990 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $191,990 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $191,990 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $191,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $191,990 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $191,990 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $191,990 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $191,990 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $191,990 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $191,990 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    The Nantucket is a 2-story home from the Cottage Series Line. It offers 3 bedrooms - all upstairs - with sizeable walk-in closets in the primary suite and one of the spare bedrooms as well as 2.5 bathrooms. Downstairs, homebuyers love the open-concept family room, kitchen, and dining room combination ideal for welcoming guests and relaxing at home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,354
• − Insurance: −$1,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$6,505
• Taxable loss: −$4,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $65/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Nantucket Plan is a well-maintained, 2-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition. It offers a good starting point for cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property.
• Both Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint, and fixtures) — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and functional, increasing its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑
• Both Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint, and fixtures) — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and functional, increasing its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $191,990 Zillow