409 Gabriel Cir #2207 · Berkshire Lakes, FL 34104

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · Condo · 230 Days on market

Built 1992 Good condition $547/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to purchase this large no steps to enter this 3 bedroom 2 bath unit on first floor with over 1400 sq, ft. with a a gorgeous lake view teeming with nature comfortably from your private lanai. There are many amenities like such as several tennis courts, bocce ball court and (4) pools to choose one of which is a short walk and can be seen from your lanai. The community is located close to to I 75, Naples downtown area with all the premiere restaurants, golf courses, shopping yet secluded for relaxation or joining with your friendly neighbors within the community activities. COME AND SEE AND MAKE AN OFFER! BEING OFFERED AT A LOW PRICE OF $309,000

Key facts

• $547 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Complex has 550 units; 8 units in building; 1 unit per floor; building has 1 floor; Restrictions: deeded, no commercial, no motorcycles, no RV; Irrigation: central
• HOA & community: Quarterly condo fee; Quarterly condo fee amount: $1,641; Total annual recurring HOA fees: $6,564; Total one-time fees: $150; Professional management; HOA maintenance covers cable, insurance, internet/Wi‑Fi, irrigation water, legal/accounting, manager, master association fee, exterior pest control, sewer, trash removal; Gated community; Community amenities include basketball, bocce court, community park, community pool, internet access, pickleball, tennis court

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned covered parking; Detached 1-car carport
• Security: Entry keypad
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Central power
• Home design: Residential garden apartment; Low rise (1-3 stories); Rear exposure facing west; Condo in development Sapphire Lakes (Sub-condo: Opal)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built in 1992
• Exterior features: Lake view; Pond; Water features; Zero lot line; Access road, paved and private road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop (electric); Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Refrigerator/ice maker; Freezer; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground level; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Humidistat
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Smoke detectors; Screened lanai/porch; Partially furnished; Island kitchen; Dining area combined with living
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $309k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (4.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $309k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Calusa Park Elementary School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 707 students, 62% FRL); Golden Gate High School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,764 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 436 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,270/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1423% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,595
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-100,731
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34104

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,270 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,635/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$547
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,395

Max offer price $294,626

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
448 Gabriel Cir Unit 3310 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	13d	1	0.08mi
388 Belina Dr Unit 1104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,000	$3.33	13d	1	0.09mi
515 Gabriel Cir Unit 1910 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,700	$3.92	13d	1	0.12mi
228 Belina Dr Unit 606 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,800	$4.00	13d	1	0.14mi
675 Luisa Ln Unit 825 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,300	$1.55	13d	1	0.14mi
705 Luisa Ln Unit 822 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,500	$1.53	13d	1	0.15mi
484 Belina Dr Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	23d	1	0.16mi
640 Luisa Ln Unit 804-4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$5,600	$3.42	23d	1	0.19mi
218 Gabriel Cir Unit 3809 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	13d	1	0.21mi
153 Gabriel Cir Unit 3003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,000	$3.33	13d	1	0.22mi
620 Luisa Ct Unit 803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	13d	1	0.23mi
7892 Sanctuary Cir #2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1742	$2,700	$1.55	13d	1	0.27mi
7892 Sanctuary Cir #02 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1742	$2,700	$1.55	23d	1	0.27mi
7895 Sanctuary Cir Unit 117-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1742	$3,500	$2.01	13d	1	0.29mi
7790 Woodbrook Cir #2603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1406	$4,500	$3.20	23d	1	0.29mi
120 Asaf Dr Unit 4304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,300	$3.19	13d	1	0.30mi
8153 Sanctuary Dr #2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1668	$2,350	$1.41	13d	1	0.33mi
7839 Regal Heron Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	0.34mi
7753 Haverhill Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1840	$2,800	$1.52	23d	1	0.35mi
4007 Recreation Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1806	$5,500	$3.05	23d	1	0.35mi
7835 Regal Heron Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1316	$2,250	$1.71	23d	2	0.39mi
7822 Great Heron Way #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$2,200	$1.54	13d	1	0.41mi
7822 Great Heron Way #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$2,200	$1.54	23d	1	0.41mi
7831 Regal Heron Cir Unit 1506858P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$4,283	$3.02	13d	1	0.41mi
7818 Great Heron Way #303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$3,395	$2.60	13d	1	0.44mi
7832 Meridan Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1567	$4,500	$2.87	23d	1	0.45mi
7804 Regal Heron Cir #304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,000	$1.53	13d	1	0.45mi
3536 Winifred Row Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,350	$1.81	13d	10	0.46mi
7823 Regal Heron Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,995	$1.53	13d	1	0.48mi
465 Robin Hood Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$3,850	$2.36	23d	1	0.49mi
7819 Regal Heron Cir #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	13d	1	0.50mi
7819 Regal Heron Cir Unit 201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	21d	1	0.50mi
445 Robin Hood Cir #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1656	$4,000	$2.42	21d	1	0.52mi
500 Robin Hood Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$4,000	$2.42	23d	1	0.53mi
159 Lady Palm Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1509	$8,000	$5.30	13d	1	0.53mi
160 Lady Palm Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1749	$3,000	$1.72	23d	1	0.54mi
230 Robin Hood Cir #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.57mi
209 Robin Hood Cir #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$3,500	$2.86	13d	1	0.59mi
7725 Tara Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,808	$1.95	13d	1	0.60mi
1600 Wellesley Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	13d	12	0.61mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $547 · $6,564/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,000 Active 219 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,000 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 667-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $309,000 Active 214 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$4,635
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,139
• − Management: −$3,139
• − HOA: −$6,564
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$6,083
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,460
• After-tax cash flow: $268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good roof, exterior, flooring, and interior walls. The landscaping and curb appeal are well-maintained. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding and an upgrade to the HVAC system to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Rental Upgrade the HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, making it more appealing to renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Upgrade the HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, making it more appealing to renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Berkshire Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,408
• Household income: $71,686
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1423.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.48%
• Current HPI: 259.3498
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Listed $309,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $309,000 MIML