9414 Ashville Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,293 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1960 8,036 sqft lot $143/sqft · 5% above area Est $176k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful freshly renovated home, come and take a look at this charming structure, you will find all new electric wiring, new AC system and unit, new roof, new plumbing, new driveway, new back and front porch, New fence, literally everything in this property has been renovated. You are more than welcome to schedule your showing today to come see this cozy house in a calm neighborhood.

Key facts

• 8,036 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 1960; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Cement siding and wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence (back yard); Porch; Patio; Private yard; Cleared lot; Subdivision setting; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 23); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 18); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 9 x 16)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (approx. 8 x 5); One half bathroom (approx. 5 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (window unit); Has cooling (window units)
• Interior features: Tub with shower; Vanity; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reynolds El (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,301 of 4,322 statewide, top 100%, 334 students, 98% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,964/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,623
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 35.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9506 Sierra Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (+2%)	3mo	$160,000	$122	77
9321 Cathedral Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,204 (-7%)	4mo	$159,000	$132	76
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,244 (-4%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	65
10014 Sierra Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,243 (-4%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	64
10006 Chesterfield Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-10%)	3mo	$125,000	$107	64
4210 Larkspur St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-1%)	5mo	$199,000	$155	63
3034 Corksie St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-5%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	59
10205 Sierra Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,151 (-11%)	3mo	$120,000	$104	56
2818 Milton Lodge Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+7%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	46
2823 Milton Lodge Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+7%)	4mo	$279,990	$202	46
3334 Dulcrest St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,122 (-13%)	3mo	$90,000	$80	41
10102 Penryn Forest Trl	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,486 (+15%)	5mo	$286,090	$193	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $113,442
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $334,960
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,354/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,785

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $194	+0% $142	+5% $89	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $64	+0% $142	+5% $219	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $189	base $142	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	0.21mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	0.52mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	1d	3	0.63mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	45d	1	0.68mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	4d	2	0.71mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	45d	1	0.85mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	45d	1	0.87mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	0.93mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	24d	1	0.93mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	20d	1	0.95mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	22d	1	1.04mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	1.05mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	26d	1	1.05mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	45d	1	1.05mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	22d	1	1.10mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	1d	1	1.12mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	18d	1	1.12mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	1.14mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	5d	1	1.20mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	1.20mi
8606 Lee Otis St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1869	$1,975	$1.06	0d	1	1.23mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	14d	1	1.26mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.33mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	14d	1	1.35mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	1.39mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	45d	1	1.44mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	26d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $185,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $238,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $238,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-15
   listed $238,000 Active 939-char remark
10. 2020-08-18
    soldstatus
11. 2020-08-17
    soldstatus Sold 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Beautiful freshly renovated home, come and take a look at this charming structure, you will find all new electric wiring, new AC system and unit, new roof, new plumbing, new driveway, new back and front porch, New fence, literally everything in this property has been renovated. You are more than welcome to schedule your showing today to come see this cozy house in a calm neighborhood.

12. 2020-07-15
    status Pending 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Beautiful freshly renovated home, come and take a look at this charming structure, you will find all new electric wiring, new AC system and unit, new roof, new plumbing, new driveway, new back and front porch, New fence, literally everything in this property has been renovated. You are more than welcome to schedule your showing today to come see this cozy house in a calm neighborhood.

13. 2020-06-18
    listed $160,000 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Beautiful freshly renovated home, come and take a look at this charming structure, you will find all new electric wiring, new AC system and unit, new roof, new plumbing, new driveway, new back and front porch, New fence, literally everything in this property has been renovated. You are more than welcome to schedule your showing today to come see this cozy house in a calm neighborhood.

14. 2019-12-15
    historical
15. 2019-11-15
    price $145,000
16. 2019-10-20
    price $153,000
17. 2019-10-20
    price $152,000
18. 2019-10-10
    listed $160,000 Active
19. 2019-05-07
    soldstatus
20. 2019-04-30
    soldstatus
21. 2019-04-26
    soldstatus
22. 2019-04-09
    soldstatus
23. 1976-05-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,354 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,354 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,354
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$294
• After-tax cash flow: $1,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-07-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-18 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-11-15 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-20 Price Changed $153,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-20 Price Changed $152,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-10 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1976-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,354 · -10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.