Nottely Plan · Lake Murray of Richland, SC 29036

$348,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Nottely is a two-story home with four bedrooms and two-and-one-half baths. Upon entering, you will notice a flex space that can be converted into a dining room with a coffered ceiling. The open concept kitchen overlooks the great room with an optional fireplace. The large pantry can be divided, offering a butlers pantry. The first-floor flex room can be converted into a guest suite. There is an optional bench and cubbies at the garage entry as well as an enlarged covered porch or sunroom. A powder bath completes the first floor. The primary suite is on the second floor and offers various shower and tub combinations and an optional boxed ceiling. Three additional bedrooms, a full bath, a

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Butlers pantry
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• BUTLERS PANTRY
• ENLARGED COVERED PORCH
• OPTIONAL FIREPLACE
• PRIMARY SUITE
• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-06-05
• Financial info: List price $348,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan; Address: 327 Rising Stream Way, Chapin, SC 29036
• Exterior features: Living area of 2504

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Nottely)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-152/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#102 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lexington 05 (suburban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 80 in SC (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 434 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $302,820 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-57,152
• Equity at exit: $51,888

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-50,621
• Equity at exit: $30,089

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29036

• Active inventory: 434
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,220/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,044

Max offer price $346,166

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $108	+0% $-13	+5% $-133	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-132	+0% $-13	+5% $107	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $76	base $-13	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Pine Log Run Chapin, SC	5.0	3.0	2588	$2,600	$1.00	12d	1	0.32mi
2019 Ludlow Pl Chapin, SC	5.0	3.5	3316	$2,990	$0.90	12d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $348,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-07
   listed $348,000 Active 163 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$5,220
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,907
• − Management: −$2,907
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$6,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $1,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 05
• NCES district ID: 4502820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,732
• Composite: 45.28/100
• National rank: #2656
• State rank: #5 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lake Murray of Richland

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #10903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 179
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 26,620
• Household income: $113,986
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 212.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 5% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.76%
• Current HPI: 248.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B