504 Kettering Way · Lakeside, FL 32073

$120,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,101 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 289 Days on market

Built 1982 871 sqft lot Est $236k · 49% under $339/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. Step into the kitchen, complete with an eye catching stylish backsplash. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Additional bedrooms provide nice living or office space. The primary bathroom with double sink features plenty of under sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Hurry, this won't last long!

Key facts

• $339 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $339; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, ground maintenance, structure maintenance, pest control, sewer, trash, and water; Community pool (not private)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Attached property
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Glass-enclosed patio/porch; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Jack-and-Jill bathroom; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Elementary School (math 67% / reading 69%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 817 students, 100% FRL); Lakeside Junior High School (math 74% / reading 69%, grade A, #57 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 870 students, 43% FRL); Orange Park High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,810 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 35% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.75%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,614
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 Kettering Way	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,101 (0%)	24mo	$130,000	$118	79
558 William Paca St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,189 (+8%)	11mo	$255,000	$214	45
610 Thomas McKeen	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,183 (+7%)	19mo	$290,000	$245	33
558 George Taylor St	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,246 (+13%)	16mo	$240,000	$193	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-17,119
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-23,094
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32073

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,272/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$339
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
227 Kettering Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,600	$1.26	8d	1	0.09mi
2299 Constitution Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,200	$1.50	20d	1	0.64mi
2939 Lakeside Villa Dr Unit G Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,500	$1.45	24d	1	0.78mi
599 Richard Lee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,795	$1.23	12d	1	0.87mi
2300 Twelve Oaks Dr Unit F2 Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,299	$1.28	8d	1	0.90mi
2150 Spencer Rd Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,304	$1.14	2d	4	0.90mi
1800 Kingsley Ave Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,450	$1.47	24d	1	0.93mi
222 Blairmore Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	2d	9	1.11mi
295 Blairmore Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	2d	1	1.29mi
417 Gano Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,900	$1.40	24d	1	1.37mi
495 Sigsbee Rd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,675	$1.34	24d	1	1.48mi
220 Woodside Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $339 · $4,068/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 289 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 283 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 280 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 279 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $120,000
15. 2026-04-20
    price $125,000
16. 2026-03-25
    price $135,000
17. 2026-03-02
    price $149,000
18. 2026-03-02
    status Active
19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2026-01-12
    price $150,000
21. 2025-10-06
    price $155,000
22. 2025-09-01
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 2023-03-06
    soldstatus $155,000
24. 2023-03-01
    soldstatus $155,000 Sold 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. Step into the kitchen, complete with an eye catching stylish backsplash. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Additional bedrooms provide nice living or office space. The primary bathroom with double sink features plenty of under sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Hurry, this won't last long!

25. 2023-01-31
    status Pending 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. Step into the kitchen, complete with an eye catching stylish backsplash. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Additional bedrooms provide nice living or office space. The primary bathroom with double sink features plenty of under sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Hurry, this won't last long!

26. 2023-01-26
    listed $155,000 Active 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    Welcome to this fabulous area! This home has fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the home. Windows create a light filled interior with well placed neutral accents. Step into the kitchen, complete with an eye catching stylish backsplash. Head to the spacious primary suite with good layout and closet included. Additional bedrooms provide nice living or office space. The primary bathroom with double sink features plenty of under sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. Take it easy in the fenced in back yard. The sitting area makes it great for BBQs! Hurry, this won't last long!

27. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus $114,600
28. 2005-07-15
    soldstatus $91,000
29. 2005-06-25
    historical 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    THIS 2 STORY 2 BEDROOM UNIT IS IN MOVE IN CONDITION AND COMES WITH ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDING LARGE SIDE BY SIDE STAINLESS REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER AND NEW DISHWASHER. COMPLEX HAS POOL, CLUBHOUSE AND PICNIC/GRILLING AREA. BRICK AND VINYL SIDING AND 2 DESIGNATED PARKING SPACES. OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY MAY 15TH 12-3PM CLICK ON MAGNIFYING GLASS FOR 15 EXTRA PHOTOS!

30. 2005-06-24
    soldstatus $91,000 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    THIS 2 STORY 2 BEDROOM UNIT IS IN MOVE IN CONDITION AND COMES WITH ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDING LARGE SIDE BY SIDE STAINLESS REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER AND NEW DISHWASHER. COMPLEX HAS POOL, CLUBHOUSE AND PICNIC/GRILLING AREA. BRICK AND VINYL SIDING AND 2 DESIGNATED PARKING SPACES. OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY MAY 15TH 12-3PM CLICK ON MAGNIFYING GLASS FOR 15 EXTRA PHOTOS!

31. 2005-05-14
    listed $90,000 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    THIS 2 STORY 2 BEDROOM UNIT IS IN MOVE IN CONDITION AND COMES WITH ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDING LARGE SIDE BY SIDE STAINLESS REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER AND NEW DISHWASHER. COMPLEX HAS POOL, CLUBHOUSE AND PICNIC/GRILLING AREA. BRICK AND VINYL SIDING AND 2 DESIGNATED PARKING SPACES. OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY MAY 15TH 12-3PM CLICK ON MAGNIFYING GLASS FOR 15 EXTRA PHOTOS!

32. 2002-12-19
    soldstatus $60,000
33. 1992-02-26
    soldstatus $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,272 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,272 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,272
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − HOA: −$4,068
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$113
• After-tax cash flow: $1,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,561
• Household income: $76,455
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1544.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.76%
• Current HPI: 289.8735
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.87%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+243.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $120,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $125,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $135,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $149,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $150,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $155,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $160,000 realMLS
• 2023-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-01 Sold (MLS) $155,000 realMLS
• 2023-01-31 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-01-26 Listed $155,000 realMLS
• 2023-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $114,600 Public Records
• 2005-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-25 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2005-06-24 Sold (MLS) $91,000 realMLS
• 2005-05-14 Listed $90,000 realMLS
• 2002-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1992-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,272 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.