1021 Drexel Blvd · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1959 8,276 sqft lot Est $175k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity! Previously a 4 bedroom turned into 3 bedrooms with 2 full baths. Relax in the living room with the large bay windows or hang out in the family room leading to the enclosed porch. Porch connects to a large 1 car garage with additional storage. Additional garden shed in the rear. Great opportunity to bring your ideas to life! Being sold As-Is. Will need some TLC.

Key facts

• Large bay windows
• Large garage
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• LARGE BAY WINDOWS
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• LARGE GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• GARDEN SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence (house); Residential property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Forced air heating (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Elem School (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,224 of 2,056 statewide, top 60%, 365 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.78%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
810 Pettit Ct	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,312 (+2%)	5mo	$180,000	$137	74
632 Drexel Blvd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,295 (+1%)	8mo	$175,000	$135	69
7643 Rogers St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,281 (+0%)	2mo	$195,815	$153	68
6320 Walker Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,245 (-3%)	8mo	$170,000	$137	64
744 Drexel Blvd	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+9%)	4mo	$170,000	$121	63
7418 Orion St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,304 (+2%)	1mo	$200,000	$153	63
630 Windsor Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,245 (-3%)	7mo	$149,000	$120	62
815 Kingsley Dr	0.24mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,125 (-12%)	4mo	$165,000	$147	56
7637 Rogers St	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,143 (-11%)	2mo	$205,000	$179	53
1321 E Renrose Ave	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (-7%)	5mo	$165,000	$139	47
7713 Mildred Rd	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,428 (+12%)	7mo	$76,000	$53	36
7913 Mildred Rd	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (-12%)	6mo	$134,000	$119	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,126
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $42,875
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,719/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,230

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,719 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$1/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,719
• − Insurance: −$1,397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $3,576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$858
• After-tax cash flow: $4,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $119,900 NWIAR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,719 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.