7406 Stillwater Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1979 4,200 sqft lot Est $165k · 24% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No need to pay "Snowbird" rental prices anymore! Make an offer on this roomy doublewide 2/2/1 car carport home. Huge living room, central kitchen with large dining area, oversized master bedroom with full bath, nice size second bedroom. All wood laminate flooring, A/C new June 2010 (with 10 yr. warranty), inside Laundry. Close to shopping and hospital, this community has an active clubhouse w/ library, a heated pool, shuffleboard, potlucks and more. This park is highly sought after because of the low $150 annual homeowners fee and it's 5 Star rating. Location is great, homestead is available with land ownership. Move in condition.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Jack and jill bath
• Ac system replaced

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• JACK AND JILL BATH
• AC SYSTEM REPLACED
• ELECTRICAL PANELS REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $250 (about $20.83/month); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; Concrete surfaces; Total of 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; Asphalt shingle roof
• Construction: Double wide manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; Sliding doors; Community pool; Community clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Range hood; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Laminate counters; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 11
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Laminate counters; Pantry; Blinds and window treatments; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 799 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $125k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.36%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,312
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7307 Stillwater Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	4mo	$163,000	$123	88
7321 Grand Pine Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+4%)	5mo	$165,000	$118	87
7411 Osage Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-2%)	7mo	$165,000	$125	83
7301 Osage Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	4mo	$148,000	$119	73
7310 Stillwater Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-15%)	5mo	$90,000	$79	62
7308 Osage Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-12%)	13mo	$175,000	$147	59
12112 Horseshoe Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+13%)	18mo	$199,900	$132	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,501
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $30,663
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 799
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,320/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,166

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $570	+0% $535	+5% $500	+10% $464
Rent	-10% $389	-5% $462	+0% $535	+5% $608	+10% $681
Rate	-1.0pp $598	-0.5pp $567	base $535	+0.5pp $503	+1.0pp $470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	25d	1	0.24mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	25d	1	0.28mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	18d	1	0.31mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	18d	1	0.37mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.37mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	25d	1	0.38mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	6d	1	0.41mi
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	18d	1	0.48mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	6d	1	0.54mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	3d	1	0.55mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	3d	1	0.58mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	6d	1	0.70mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	22d	1	0.74mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	0.74mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	25d	1	0.79mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	4d	1	0.81mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	3d	10	0.82mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	13d	1	0.84mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	25d	1	0.84mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	12d	1	0.84mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	13d	1	0.85mi
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	24d	1	0.87mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.87mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.87mi
12535 3rd Isle Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,600	$1.87	25d	1	0.89mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	0d	1	0.90mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	25d	1	0.90mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	0.95mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.95mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	25d	1	0.95mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	0d	1	0.95mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	0.97mi
7216 Gulf Breeze Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,731	$1.14	0d	1	0.99mi
7730 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,850	$1.04	24d	1	1.04mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	24d	1	1.07mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	22d	1	1.12mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	6d	1	1.15mi
13306 Lakeshore Blvd Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,500	$0.88	0d	1	1.17mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	18d	1	1.21mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	25d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $124,900 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $139,000
16. 2026-03-08
    listed $149,000 Active
17. 2013-04-01
    soldstatus $50,000
18. 2013-03-27
    soldstatus $50,000 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    No need to pay "Snowbird" rental prices anymore! Make an offer on this roomy doublewide 2/2/1 car carport home. Huge living room, central kitchen with large dining area, oversized master bedroom with full bath, nice size second bedroom. All wood laminate flooring, A/C new June 2010 (with 10 yr. warranty), inside Laundry. Close to shopping and hospital, this community has an active clubhouse w/ library, a heated pool, shuffleboard, potlucks and more. This park is highly sought after because of the low $150 annual homeowners fee and it's 5 Star rating. Location is great, homestead is available with land ownership. Move in condition.

19. 2012-08-14
    listed $59,900 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    No need to pay "Snowbird" rental prices anymore! Make an offer on this roomy doublewide 2/2/1 car carport home. Huge living room, central kitchen with large dining area, oversized master bedroom with full bath, nice size second bedroom. All wood laminate flooring, A/C new June 2010 (with 10 yr. warranty), inside Laundry. Close to shopping and hospital, this community has an active clubhouse w/ library, a heated pool, shuffleboard, potlucks and more. This park is highly sought after because of the low $150 annual homeowners fee and it's 5 Star rating. Location is great, homestead is available with land ownership. Move in condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,320 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,320 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,320
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $4,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $5,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+132.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $139,000 RACC
• 2026-03-08 Listed $149,000 RACC
• 2013-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-27 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-14 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,320 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.