1017 Smithland Ave · La Junta, CO 81050

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1956 6,969 sqft lot Est $171k · 47% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 134 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Unattached property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Built area approximately 1,500 (public records)
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Living room on the main level; Main-level kitchen; Front porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.1% in La Junta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#126 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• East Otero School District No. R1 (town): math 7% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #83 of 86 in CO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Junta Primary School (291 students, 72% FRL); La Junta Jr/Sr High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #307 of 381 statewide, top 82%, 539 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.69%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
822 Colorado Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,452 (-3%)	5mo	$225,000	$155	75
709 Cimarron Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,642 (+10%)	10mo	$220,000	$134	61
514 E 5th St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,503 (+0%)	14mo	$170,000	$113	60
1102 Edison Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,376 (-8%)	22mo	$148,000	$108	59
1401 Bradish Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,372 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$208	57
410 Raton Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-7%)	2mo	$80,000	$57	57
904 Cimarron Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,303 (-13%)	18mo	$140,000	$107	52
1006 Park Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+10%)	7mo	$204,000	$123	52
721 Carson Ave	0.52mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,468 (-2%)	18mo	$184,500	$126	52
521 Cimarron Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+8%)	19mo	$185,000	$114	46
412 Lincoln Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,560 (+4%)	18mo	$47,000	$30	44
402 Lincoln Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (+0%)	14mo	$80,000	$53	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-269
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $18,243
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81050

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $90,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-03-27
    price $90,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

11. 2026-03-27
    price $90,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

12. 2026-03-27
    price $90,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

13. 2026-03-18
    price $98,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

14. 2026-03-18
    price $98,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

15. 2026-03-18
    price $98,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

16. 2026-02-20
    price $100,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for a Renovation Loan.

17. 2026-02-19
    price $100,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

18. 2026-02-19
    price $100,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

19. 2026-02-10
    price $105,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

20. 2026-02-10
    price $105,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

21. 2026-02-10
    price $105,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

22. 2026-01-25
    listed $110,000 Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

23. 2026-01-25
    listed $110,000 Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for renovation loan.

24. 2026-01-24
    listed $110,000 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Investor special, home used to be a church, great potential for someone willing to put in some sweat equity. Home may qualify for a Renovation Loan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$322
• After-tax cash flow: $2,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Otero School District No. R1
• NCES district ID: 0805130
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,475
• Composite: 13.36/100
• National rank: #9534
• State rank: #83 of 86 in CO

Livability — La Junta

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #10703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Junta, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,774

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,363 people
• By 2030: 16,776 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 15,534 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 14,467 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 12,054 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 9,392 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.5% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.44%
• Current HPI: 232.984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $90,000 IRES
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $90,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $90,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $98,000 IRES
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $98,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $98,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $100,000 PARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $100,000 IRES
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $100,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $105,000 PARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $105,000 IRES
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $105,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Listed $110,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Listed $110,000 IRES
• 2026-01-24 Listed $110,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $90 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.