69 Old Depot Rd · Quogue, NY 11959

$2,495,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 2014 0.55 ac lot Est $2298k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This striking post-modern home, built in 2014 offers an impressive 4700 square feet of finished living space, including a 1100-square-foot basement. The first floor features an open chef’s kitchen, dining area, living room with gas fireplace, half bath, bonus room, and a four-car garage with soaring 11-foot ceilings. Upstairs are four spacious bedrooms, each with a private bathroom, plus a laundry room and a second bonus room. The finished lower level includes room for a gym, recreation area, media room and billiards room. Outside, enjoy a covered porch, in-ground pool, and a basketball/pickleball court—perfect for entertaining. Located in the Quogue Village with Quogue Schools,

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Minutes from beach
• Open chefs kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CHEFS KITCHEN
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• IN GROUND POOL
• BASKETBALL PICKLEBALL COURT
• COVERED PORCH
• MINUTES FROM BEACH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 4-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Shingle siding
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Basketball court; Tennis court(s); Private in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Wine refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 10 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Chandelier; Chef's kitchen; Crown molding; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Finished basement; Partial attic; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($112k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($34k rent vs $2.50M).
• Recommended offer: $2.27M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#600 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #125 of 755 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Quogue Elementary School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #45 of 2,108 statewide, top 3%, 84 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 75% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Quogue Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $117k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $699k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$189k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.27M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $400k; list at $2.50M implies a 524% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,270,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.97%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,298,300
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69 Old Depot Rd	0.00mi	4/4.5	4,700 (0%)	0mo	$2,300,000	$489	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $1,029,650
• Equity at exit: $1,266,845

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $2,675,198
• Equity at exit: $2,073,500

Cash invested: $698,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11959

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $33,597 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,119 /mo · $37,425/yr
• Insurance: −$1,040
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,055
• Net cashflow: $9,300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,826

Max offer price $2,495,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $623,750
• Closing costs: $74,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Old Meeting House Rd Quogue, NY	5.0	5.5	4500	$30,000	$6.67	24d	1	0.58mi
50 Old Main Rd Quogue, NY	4.0	4.5	3702	$30,000	$8.10	24d	1	0.63mi
19 Dune Rd Westhampton Beach, NY	4.0	5.5	3991	$50,000	$12.53	24d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-11
   listed $2,495,000 Active
3. 2025-12-10
   historical
4. 2025-09-04
   price $2,450,000
5. 2025-05-28
   price $2,490,000
6. 2025-05-28
   price $2,495,000
7. 2025-04-04
   price $2,595,000
8. 2025-03-05
   listed $2,695,000 Active
9. 2024-11-22
   historical
10. 2024-05-15
    price $2,495,000
11. 2024-03-21
    price $2,595,000
12. 2024-01-22
    listed $2,695,000 Active
13. 2020-10-31
    historical
14. 2020-07-15
    listed $2,295,000 Active
15. 2020-05-19
    historical
16. 2019-07-19
    listed $2,295,000 New
17. 2012-02-23
    soldstatus $400,000
18. 2000-10-18
    soldstatus $630,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $403,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,759
• − Property taxes: −$37,425
• − Insurance: −$12,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$32,254
• − Management: −$32,254
• − Depreciation: −$72,582
• Taxable income: $76,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,341
• After-tax cash flow: $93,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624060
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 66.09/100
• National rank: #960
• State rank: #125 of 755 in NY

Livability — Quogue

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #10895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Quogue, NY
• City population: 576
• Population (ZIP): 576

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 21% Portuguese 7% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Current HPI: 364.8746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+296.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Listed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $2,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $2,490,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $2,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Listed $2,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $2,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-22 Listed $2,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-15 Listed $2,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-19 Listed $2,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $630,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,497 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.