2046 Duchesse Dr · Oregon, OH 43616

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1946 0.94 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the incredible potential at 2046 Duchesse Dr in Oregon, a rare chance to own prime ground just steps from Lake Erie and minutes from the Eagles Landing Golf Club. Offered at auction on April 8th at 4:00 PM with a minimum bid of $175,000, this home is ready for a new owner to bring their own vision to life in a highly sought-after coastal community. Whether you choose to refresh and update the existing character or build a custom retreat from the ground up, this location offers an unparalleled lifestyle. The interior features a generous and functional layout, including a massive family room, a bright living room, and a spacious kitchen with a dedicated dining area. The home offers t

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Bright living room
• Massive family room

Tags

• STEPS FROM LAKE ERIE
• MASSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• EXPANSIVE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($235/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Oregon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#210 in OH, #3,303 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Oregon City (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #384 of 656 in OH (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jerusalem Elementary School (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #323 of 1,584 statewide, top 23%, 396 students, 34% FRL); Fassett Junior High School (math 42% / reading 54%, grade C-, #441 of 654 statewide, top 68%, 519 students, 40% FRL); Clay High School (math 27% / reading 69%, grade D, #429 of 781 statewide, top 55%, 1,139 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $168,978 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $473,276
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5243 Eagles Landing Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,617 (-1%)	7mo	$550,000	$210	54
5179 Bay Ridge Ct	0.38mi	3/3.5	2,557 (-3%)	19mo	$437,500	$171	53
1609 Grand Bay Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,651 (+0%)	12mo	$474,900	$179	52
5102 Bay Ridge Ct	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,401 (-9%)	8mo	$402,000	$167	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,017
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,548
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43616

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,896/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $69	+0% $20	+5% $-30	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-47	+0% $20	+5% $86	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $64	base $20	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,896 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,896 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,896
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$632
• After-tax cash flow: $867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon City
• NCES district ID: 3904460
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $53,972
• Composite: 46.03/100
• National rank: #2524
• State rank: #384 of 656 in OH

Livability — Oregon

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #3303

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oregon, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 20,309
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 20,309
• Household income: $81,829
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.90%
• Current HPI: 214.6328
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — NORIS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $175,000 NORIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,896 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.