186 Balboa Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 4,792 sqft lot $168/sqft · 21% below area Est $321k · 21% under $119/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

186 Balboa Lane offers a 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath, two-story townhome lifestyle with the ease of lock-and-leave living, thanks to HOA-maintained front and side yards. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with 36" cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an oversized island complete with pendant lighting and a convenient pop-up outlet. A second-floor loft provides versatile space for work or relaxation, while the primary suite features transom windows and is pre-wired for a wall-mounted TV. The primary bath is finished with a dual-sink vanity, Carrara Snow engineered marble countertops, and brushed nickel light fixtures for a polished look. Additional upgrades include LED disk lighting in the family room and primary bedroom. Your Pacesetter Home comes equipped with a suite of smart features designed to enhance everyday living. -Ring Video Doorbell-Honeywell Smart T6 Thermostat for energy savings-WiFi-enabled Garage Door-Rainbird Wifi-capable Sprinkler System

Key facts

• Second floor loft
• Transom windows
• Oversized island

Tags

• FULLY FENCED REAR YARD
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• SECOND FLOOR LOFT
• TRANSOM WINDOWS
• PRE WIRED FOR WALL MOUNTED TV
• DUAL SINK VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include sprinkler system, greenbelt, jogging/bike path, park, playground, and sidewalks
• Financial info: Treat As Clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA management: Goodwin & Co; Annual association fee; Association covers full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (garage faces front) with garage door opener; 1 covered/garage space; Carport spaces: 0
• Security: Prewired; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Underground utilities; Community mailbox; Curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; New construction (incomplete); Town Park North planned development
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Private yard; Private entrance; Covered patio; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Wood fencing in backyard; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (Primary bedroom on level 1; two additional bedrooms on level 2); Game room on level 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Electric components; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Room count: 6; One living area; One dining area; Smart home features enabled
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lowe El (math 39% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 676 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,972 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.86%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,304
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -20.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Griffith Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	2mo	$244,980	$161	95
322 Boston	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+1%)	3mo	$294,960	$192	89
204 Griffith	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-6%)	3mo	$229,970	$161	86
211 Griffith Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,431 (-6%)	2mo	$229,970	$161	85
203 Griffith Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,651 (+8%)	1mo	$249,980	$151	77
304 Harvard Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+5%)	3mo	$325,000	$203	76
215 N 2nd St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-9%)	1mo	$245,000	$178	70
767 Myrtle Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-0%)	1mo	$233,000	$154	65
405 Everglades St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-6%)	5mo	$262,000	$182	58
521 Big Bend Pkwy	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+6%)	1mo	$289,990	$181	57
209 Timber Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+9%)	3mo	$274,900	$165	53
418 Wydown Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,718 (+13%)	5mo	$294,990	$172	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-69,117
• Equity at exit: $38,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-110,344
• Equity at exit: $22,047

Cash invested: $71,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$119
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,381

Max offer price $204,518

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-173	-5% $-261	+0% $-349	+5% $-437	+10% $-525
Rent	-10% $-502	-5% $-425	+0% $-349	+5% $-272	+10% $-196
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-284	base $-349	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,748
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
226 Griffith Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,675	$1.25	25d	1	0.09mi
100 E Brown St Princeton, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$2,870	$2.40	2d	1	0.24mi
414 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,595	$1.20	25d	1	0.31mi
101 Teakwood Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,000	$1.10	23d	1	0.34mi
228 N 4th St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,450	$0.99	44d	1	0.37mi
502 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,550	$1.20	44d	1	0.42mi
514 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	25d	1	0.45mi
514 E Hazelwood St Unit B Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	8d	1	0.45mi
514 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	0d	1	0.45mi
514 E Hazelwood St Unit B Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	44d	1	0.45mi
512 E Hazelwood St Unit A Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,349	$1.04	44d	1	0.46mi
468 Pebble Brook Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,250	$1.03	13d	1	0.54mi
236 Cr-454 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,030	$1.21	0d	1	0.55mi
712 Prairie Creek Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,350	$1.15	44d	1	0.56mi
899 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,780	$1.80	0d	13	0.60mi
417 Sweet Shade Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1726	$1,900	$1.10	18d	1	0.61mi
600 Jefferson Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	19d	1	0.61mi
366 Lake Erie Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$1,990	$1.09	25d	1	0.62mi
414 Sweet Shade Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,900	$1.12	44d	1	0.63mi
715 Mulberry Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,695	$1.31	25d	1	0.64mi
803 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1683	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	0.68mi
818 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,349	$1.16	2d	1	0.69mi
814 Lake Fletcher Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1991	$1,994	$1.00	0d	1	0.70mi
814 Lake Fletcher Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1991	$1,994	$1.00	4d	1	0.70mi
843 Ozark Path Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,100	$1.68	44d	1	0.71mi
780 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,069	$1.13	44d	1	0.72mi
217 Creekwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,795	$1.02	0d	1	0.74mi
767 Myrtle Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,790	$1.18	8d	1	0.74mi
767 Myrtle Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,775	$1.17	5d	1	0.74mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,799	$1.87	44d	23	0.74mi
865 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,050	$1.31	23d	1	0.75mi
771 Bayonet St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,850	$1.22	23d	1	0.76mi
846 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,000	$1.10	0d	1	0.76mi
846 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,000	$1.10	3d	1	0.76mi
912 N 4th St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,149	$1.48	0d	1	0.78mi
445 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,050	$1.01	6d	1	0.79mi
409 Buckeye Ave Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1726	$1,850	$1.07	44d	1	0.79mi
412 Stonecreek Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$1,950	$1.11	44d	1	0.79mi
406 Kingsbury Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,095	$1.16	44d	1	0.80mi
882 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$2,250	$1.23	23d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $119 · $1,428/yr
• Likely covers: internet

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,990 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,990 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $254,990 Active 1052-char remark
17. 2026-02-14
    listed $254,990 Active 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    186 Balboa Lane offers a 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath, two-story townhome lifestyle with the ease of lock-and-leave living, thanks to HOA-maintained front and side yards. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with 36" cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an oversized island complete with pendant lighting and a convenient pop-up outlet. A second-floor loft provides versatile space for work or relaxation, while the primary suite features transom windows and is pre-wired for a wall-mounted TV. The primary bath is finished with a dual-sink vanity, Carrara Snow engineered marble countertops, and brushed nickel light fixtures for a polished look. Additional upgrades include LED disk lighting in the family room and primary bedroom. Your Pacesetter Home comes equipped with a suite of smart features designed to enhance everyday living. -Ring Video Doorbell-Honeywell Smart T6 Thermostat for energy savings-WiFi-enabled Garage Door-Rainbird Wifi-capable Sprinkler System

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,283
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − HOA: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$8,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $254,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $254,990 Zillow