4028 E Grove St · St. Louis, MO 63107

$51,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 869 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1907 2,221 sqft lot Est $36k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• 2,221 sq ft lot
• Built 1907
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 869 (source: public records); Above-grade finished area reported as 2,223 (source: public records)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No driveway; No garage; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Private ownership; Updated/remodeled condition; One-story; House structure
• Construction: Brick construction; Flat roof
• Exterior features: Front yard; Near public transit; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling reported
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $51k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($884 rent vs $51k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bryan Hill Elem. (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 182 students, 98% FRL); Gateway Middle (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #389 of 391 statewide, top 100%, 506 students, 99% FRL); Beaumont Cte High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 236 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $353 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $893 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,235 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.58%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $35,629
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3641 Hebert St	0.47mi	2/1.0	967 (+11%)	4mo	$107,000	$111	56
1131 Angelica St	0.59mi	2/1.0	912 (+5%)	11mo	$50,000	$55	55
3819 Kossuth Ave	0.49mi	1/1.0 (-1)	816 (-6%)	22mo	$38,500	$47	44
4117 Gano Ave	0.39mi	1/1.0 (-1)	766 (-12%)	16mo	$5,000	$7	44
2248 Sullivan Ave	0.65mi	1/1.0 (-1)	987 (+14%)	8mo	$24,900	$25	35
2129 E Gano Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	738 (-15%)	20mo	$20,000	$27	26
2236 Sullivan Ave	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	987 (+14%)	20mo	$40,000	$41	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $19,885
• Equity at exit: $10,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $52,463
• Equity at exit: $9,539

Cash invested: $14,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63107

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$267
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $123/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $378

Max offer price $51,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $414	+0% $400	+5% $385	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $365	+0% $400	+5% $435	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $413	base $400	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,750
• Closing costs: $1,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3644 Natural Bridge Ave Apt 303 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	710	$825	$1.16	45d	1	0.36mi
3644 Natural Bridge Ave Apt 203 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	570	$680	$1.19	45d	1	0.36mi
3819 Kossuth Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.5	816	$725	$0.89	25d	1	0.47mi
2002 Obear Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	6d	1	0.57mi
1906 Obear Ave #1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	23d	1	0.62mi
1910 Agnes St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	704	$1,200	$1.70	45d	1	0.71mi
2239 University St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,295	$1.16	13d	1	0.74mi
4301 E Warne Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$525	$0.95	45d	1	0.75mi
5200 Von Phul St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	25d	1	1.00mi
3516 Russell Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	560	$875	$1.56	9d	1	1.01mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	6d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $51,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $51,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $51,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $51,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $51,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $51,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $51,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $51,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $51,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $51,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $51,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $51,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $51,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $51,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $51,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $123 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $495 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$371/yr (+$31/mo · 300.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,857
• − Property taxes: −$123
• − Insurance: −$255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$849
• − Management: −$849
• − Depreciation: −$1,484
• Taxable income: $4,195
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,007
• After-tax cash flow: $3,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 9,082

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.75%
• Current HPI: 92.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $51,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $123 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.