173 Bluewing Rdg · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$104,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1994 $87/sqft · 47% below area Est $199k · 47% under $182/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Holly Lake Ranch cottage in the woods. Two bedrooms which could be turned into three.

Key facts

• Built 1994
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $182.68; Located in the Holly Lake Ranch community

Exterior

• Home design: Single family detached residence; Single story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Central heating; Fireplace insert

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.5% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 383 students, 64% FRL); Hawkins H S / Middle (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 386 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,753 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.63%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,848
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -47.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Candlelight Cv	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,106 (-8%)	2mo	$176,900	$160	64
192 Drifting Cloud	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	14mo	$225,000	$180	61
177 Woodfern Gln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,106 (-8%)	8mo	$182,000	$165	47
1796 Valleywood Trl	0.64mi	2/3.0	1,238 (+3%)	23mo	$219,500	$177	46
135 Woodfern Gln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,340 (+12%)	18mo	$304,000	$227	32
126 Valleywood Gln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (-14%)	22mo	$168,999	$163	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $36,156
• Equity at exit: $47,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $96,326
• Equity at exit: $74,017

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,202/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$182
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $418	-5% $388	+0% $358	+5% $329	+10% $299
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $292	+0% $358	+5% $424	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $411	-0.5pp $385	base $358	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $182 · $2,184/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $104,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $114,900 Active 85-char remark
19. 1998-07-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,202 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,202 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$2,202
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
• − Management: −$1,601
• − HOA: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $2,973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$713
• After-tax cash flow: $3,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $104,900 GTAR
• 2026-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records
• 2026-05-04 Listed $114,900 GTAR
• 1998-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,202 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.