Primrose Plan · Pilot Point, TX 76258

$245,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · SingleFamily · 838 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Primrose is one of M/I Homes' newest 30' Smart Series plans, offering the flexibility you are looking for in a new home design and providing the ease of style found in our Interior and Exterior Design packages. This plan delivers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,349-1,397 square feet of living space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 837 days

🏗️ New construction. The $245,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,850.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pilot Point El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 516 students, 56% FRL); Pilot Point Selz Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 59% FRL); Pilot Point H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 452 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 741 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 838 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $195,723 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 838 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,850
• List price: $245,990
• Delta: -13.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14069 Haggerston Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-3%)	3mo	$209,999	$161	78
14061 Earlham St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+11%)	2mo	$244,995	$163	71
14145 Inglebert St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-3%)	4mo	$235,000	$180	69
14141 Maida Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-3%)	0mo	$230,999	$176	65
14017 Ilderton St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+12%)	1mo	$214,500	$142	64
14119 Nullah St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-3%)	2mo	$231,999	$177	63
6320 Auburn Dale Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+13%)	2mo	$243,999	$160	62
14112 Olney Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-3%)	3mo	$234,999	$179	62
14159 Olney Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-3%)	3mo	$229,999	$175	58
14115 Nullah St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	0mo	$238,999	$165	56
14134 Nullah St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+8%)	2mo	$246,999	$169	55
14111 Nullah St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+8%)	2mo	$241,999	$166	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-73,026
• Equity at exit: $42,472

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-98,106
• Equity at exit: $24,629

Cash invested: $79,758 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 66 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $264,990 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76258

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 741
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,273/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,492

Max offer price $223,739

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-225	-5% $-324	+0% $-422	+5% $-521	+10% $-619
Rent	-10% $-577	-5% $-500	+0% $-422	+5% $-345	+10% $-268
Rate	-1.0pp $-279	-0.5pp $-350	base $-422	+0.5pp $-496	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,213
• Closing costs: $8,546
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14009 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,850	$1.17	37d	1	0.05mi
14009 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,950	$1.24	113d	1	0.05mi
14121 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	184d	1	0.12mi
14017 Earlham St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	72d	1	0.12mi
6905 Adderly Rd Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,845	$1.24	184d	1	0.14mi
14133 Calderwood St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,280	$1.30	184d	1	0.15mi
14037 Earlham St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,150	$1.43	10d	1	0.15mi
14048 Earlham St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1647	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	0.15mi
14048 Earlham St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1647	$1,850	$1.12	10d	1	0.15mi
14068 Drover St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,895	$1.22	2d	1	0.17mi
14165 Calderwood St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,800	$1.30	49d	1	0.21mi
14217 Bechler St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,100	$1.27	3d	1	0.29mi
14217 Bechler St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,100	$1.27	6d	1	0.29mi
14045 Ilderton St Unit NA Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	132d	1	0.32mi
14045 Ilderton St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1849	$1,975	$1.07	1d	1	0.32mi
14045 Ilderton St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	133d	1	0.32mi
14045 Ilderton St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1849	$1,975	$1.07	133d	1	0.32mi
7108 Calshot Rd Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	184d	1	0.32mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,195	$1.22	184d	1	0.33mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	153d	1	0.33mi
14220 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,099	$1.27	144d	1	0.34mi
14114 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,000	$1.33	10d	1	0.35mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	109d	1	0.37mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	159d	1	0.38mi
14153 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,850	$1.22	135d	1	0.43mi
14085 Ladbroke St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,700	$1.11	165d	1	0.45mi
14188 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,945	$1.10	10d	1	0.49mi
14188 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,095	$1.19	130d	1	0.49mi
14174 Inglebert St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,850	$1.27	184d	1	0.51mi
7308 Amber Barn Ave Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,995	$1.36	3d	1	0.60mi
7803 Bent Gale Rd Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,975	$1.27	109d	1	0.64mi
14141 Zealand Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,895	$1.31	10d	1	0.80mi
14141 Zealand Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,895	$1.31	43d	1	0.80mi
7808 Marion Downs Trl Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,200	$1.24	16d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $245,990 Active 838 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $245,990 Active 837 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $245,990 Active 836 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $245,990 Active 835 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $245,990 Active 834 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $245,990 Active 832 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $245,990 Active 831 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $245,990 Active 830 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $245,990 Active 829 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $245,990 Active 828 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $245,990 Active 827 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $245,990 Active 826 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $245,990 Active 825 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $245,990 Active 824 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $245,990 Active 823 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $245,990 Active 822 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 821 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 820 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $245,990 Active 819 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $245,990 Active 818 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $245,990 Active 817 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $245,990 Active 816 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $245,990 Active 815 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $245,990 Active 814 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $245,990 Active 813 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $245,990 Active 812 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $245,990 Active 811 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $245,990 Active 810 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $245,990 Active 809 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $245,990 Active 808 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $245,990 Active 807 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $245,990 Active 806 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $245,990 Active 805 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $245,990 Active 804 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $245,990 Active 803 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $245,990 Active 802 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $245,990 Active 801 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $245,990 Active 800 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $245,990 Active 799 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $245,990 Active 798 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $245,990 Active 797 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $245,990 Active 796 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $245,990 Active 795 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $245,990 Active 794 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $245,990 Active 793 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $245,990 Active 792 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 791 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 790 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $245,990 Active 789 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $245,990 Active 788 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,956
• − Property taxes: −$4,273
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$8,287
• Taxable loss: −$10,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,451
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with LED models — Saves energy and improves aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pilot Point El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Pilot Point Selz Middle F TX #660/1,662 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Pilot Point H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pilot Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834920
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,332
• Composite: 36.85/100
• National rank: #4555
• State rank: #303 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilot Point, TX
• County: Denton · 1,053,010 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,042
• Household income: $93,661
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.12%
• Current HPI: 303.4015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $240,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-07 Listed $279,990 Zillow