4 Fordham Hill Oval Unit 12B · New York, NY 10468

$249,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 935 sqft · Condo public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1950 ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This two-bedroom unit features a master king-sized bedroom with water views and multiple windows in each bedroom. The secondary room can equip a queen-sized bed with a bedroom furniture set. A magnificent view of both the Harlem River and eyeshot of the Hudson River Bridge from the L-shaped dining and living room combo. A key feature of this complex is the gated community with 24-hour security and its astonishingly well-kept landscape. The home features an updated bathroom and original stainless steel kitchen cabinets with a modern backsplash design. The hardwood flooring has been expertly finished, and overall, sustainable original details with updated touches throughout. (MAINTENANCE INCL

Key facts

• Gated community
• Water views
• Well kept landscape

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• 24 HOUR SECURITY
• WELL KEPT LANDSCAPE
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• MODERN BACKSPLASH DESIGN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by FirstService; Community amenities: fitness center, gated community, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas connected; See remarks for additional utility details
• Home design: Stock cooperative; 16 total stories
• Construction: Brick foundation (brick/mortar)
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Elevator; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Finished walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,044/mo this rent would consume 105% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 9659% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.37%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.5% appreciation · 6.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $108,205
• Equity at exit: $78,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $324,017
• Equity at exit: $99,741

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10468

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$849
• Net cashflow: $1,474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 W 206th St Unit 1202E New York, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$6,250	$6.94	24d	1	0.52mi
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$3,938	$3.48	22d	3	1.02mi
2311 Crotona Ave Apt 1 Bronx, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$3,350	$3.53	20d	1	1.50mi
2311 Crotona Ave Apt 2 Bronx, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$3,350	$3.53	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 353 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 348 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,000 Active 343 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 341 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 340 DOM
10. 2025-06-24
    listed $249,000 Active
11. 2025-06-02
    historical
12. 2024-11-20
    price $250,000
13. 2024-07-15
    price $254,000
14. 2024-05-09
    price $255,000
15. 2024-05-08
    listed $251 Active
16. 2023-01-18
    price $266,000
17. 2023-01-18
    price $266,000
18. 2022-12-06
    price $259,000
19. 2022-12-06
    price $259,000
20. 2022-12-06
    price $269,000
21. 2022-12-01
    price $269,000
22. 2022-05-14
    listed $275,000 Active
23. 2022-05-06
    status Active
24. 2022-01-04
    listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,882
• − Management: −$3,882
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $14,589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,501
• After-tax cash flow: $14,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 75,557
• Household income: $46,233
• Rent vs Own: 91.5% rent · 8.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9659.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Black 17% Two or more races 15% White 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 45%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 69% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Current HPI: 249.8923
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-24 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $254,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-09 Price Changed $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-08 Listed $251 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $266,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $266,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2022-12-06 Price Changed $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-06 Price Changed $259,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2022-12-06 Price Changed $269,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-14 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2022-01-04 Listed $275,000 RLS at REBNY