209 N Jefferson St · Winchester, TN 37398

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,145 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1900 10,454 sqft lot Est $215k · 40% under ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This versatile 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers a prime investment opportunity with endless potential. Featuring a spacious garage, this property can serve as a comfortable residence or be transformed into a functional office space. With a flexible layout and a blank slate for customization, it’s the perfect canvas to bring your vision to life.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#149 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Franklin County (town): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #111 of 139 in TN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clark Memorial School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #637 of 952 statewide, top 68%, 489 students, 0% FRL); Franklin Co High School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #255 of 332 statewide, top 77%, 1,180 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $130k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.44%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
716 N Cedar St	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-5%)	3mo	$154,900	$142	68
706 N Vine St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,086 (-5%)	4mo	$180,000	$166	64
417 Laura Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (-7%)	1mo	$186,000	$175	60
301 N Shephard St	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,313 (+15%)	3mo	$250,000	$190	56
711 Hunt St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+3%)	2mo	$215,975	$184	55
512 N Vine St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,292 (+13%)	3mo	$242,500	$188	55
115 7th Ave NE	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,308 (+14%)	3mo	$172,000	$131	52
506 6th Ave NW	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-12%)	2mo	$165,000	$164	51
97 Troy Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,214 (+6%)	1mo	$287,850	$237	49
713 Hunt St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (-7%)	3mo	$214,900	$202	47
114 11th Ave NW	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-9%)	5mo	$235,000	$226	38
119 Kenmore Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (+11%)	1mo	$245,000	$192	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $31,882
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $95,799
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37398

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $982

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $905	-5% $869	+0% $832	+5% $795	+10% $758
Rent	-10% $671	-5% $751	+0% $832	+5% $912	+10% $993
Rate	-1.0pp $897	-0.5pp $865	base $832	+0.5pp $798	+1.0pp $764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-05
   soldstatus $80,000
2. 2025-04-15
   status Pending
3. 2025-03-18
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-02-05
   listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 88.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $8,322
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,997
• After-tax cash flow: $7,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 4701290
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,108
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9094
• State rank: #111 of 139 in TN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13341

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, TN
• Population (ZIP): 15,712

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,858 people
• By 2030: 43,540 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 44,623 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 45,523 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 48,954 · +14.2%
• By 2100: 50,170 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.03%
• Current HPI: 333.839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-38.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-15 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Listed $129,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.