21 Willow St · Gloversville, NY 12078

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,030 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1886 5,662 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Beautiful and lovingly restored, this two-family home sits in the heart of Gloversville, offering a rare blend of modern comfort and classic charm. Completely updated and thoughtfully designed, it's ready to welcome its next owner with ease. Each apartment features two well-sized bedrooms with abundant closet space, large light-filled living rooms, and spacious kitchens adorned with custom cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. Updated bathrooms, hardwood floors, vinyl siding, and serene skylights elevate both style and function. Step outside to a large, expansive backyard where lush green space sets the stage for quiet mornings, weekend gatherings, or simple moments of peace. A generous

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Two family home
• 5,662 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO FAMILY HOME
• LARGE EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUSLY SIZED SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $198/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#70 in NY, #1,048 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment F.
• Gloversville City School District (town): math 26% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #565 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gloversville High School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 697 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+46 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gloversville City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1886 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1886 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.72%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,380
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Prospect Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0	2,078 (+2%)	4mo	$110,000	$53	71
177 Spring St	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,728 (-15%)	5mo	$80,000	$46	50
336 N Main St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,088 (+3%)	17mo	$30,000	$14	50
6 Carpenter St	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,760 (-13%)	11mo	$79,500	$45	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $131,456
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $367,198
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12078

• Home prices YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,890/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,597

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 76%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,098
Total (2 units)			$2,099

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Fremont St Gloversville, NY	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1612	$1,425	$0.88	44d	3	0.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-08
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,890 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,593 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 37.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,890
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,697
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$407
• After-tax cash flow: $4,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloversville City School District
• NCES district ID: 3612270
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,775
• Composite: 28.2/100
• National rank: #6806
• State rank: #565 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gloversville

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #1048

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gloversville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,087

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.22%
• Current HPI: 315.1368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $195,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,890 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.