21527 Thunder Basin · San Antonio, TX 78261

$274,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2006 6,551 sqft lot $152/sqft · 19% below area Est $338k · 19% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean design meets smart living. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home with a 2-car attached garage features high ceilings, open-concept living, and natural light throughout. The kitchen flows seamlessly with granite counters and ample cabinetry—perfect for hosting or everyday use. Private primary suite plus flexible secondary bedrooms. Located in Wortham Oaks near Wortham Oaks Park, with quick access to H-E-B Plus! at Bulverde Rd, Stone Oak shopping and dining, and TPC San Antonio Golf Club. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• High ceilings
• Open-concept living

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• FLEXIBLE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($148k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,739 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,672
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -18.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21503 Riverton Rise	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-2%)	1mo	$280,000	$158	85
5610 Thunder Oaks	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,927 (+6%)	2mo	$332,000	$172	76
21154 Boulder Flts	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+1%)	2mo	$391,950	$215	65
21207 Boulder Flts	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+2%)	0mo	$365,000	$198	64
21138 Boulder Flts	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+1%)	2mo	$393,950	$216	63
21150 Boulder Flts	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-2%)	1mo	$384,950	$217	61
20944 Gravel Keep	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+1%)	0mo	$417,500	$229	60
21130 Boulder Flts	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-2%)	0mo	$387,950	$218	60
5911 Akin Stroll	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,955 (+8%)	1mo	$344,999	$176	55
21162 Boulder Flts	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-7%)	1mo	$368,950	$220	53
21118 Boulder Flts	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-7%)	1mo	$367,950	$219	49
21126 Boulder Flts	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,595 (-12%)	0mo	$379,950	$238	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-58,814
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,135
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78261

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,431/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $220,189

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21514 Thunder Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,100	$1.09	17d	1	0.07mi
21735 Thunder Basin San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2363	$2,150	$0.91	43d	1	0.09mi
5515 Stormie Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2257	$2,450	$1.09	21d	1	0.34mi
5518 Stormie Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$2,250	$1.26	2d	1	0.35mi
5518 Stormie Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,250	$1.27	1d	1	0.35mi
5951 Southern Knl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1648	$2,500	$1.52	1d	1	0.35mi
5536 Jewel Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	43d	1	0.40mi
5602 Chestnut Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1958	$2,250	$1.15	23d	1	0.49mi
5714 Pin Pt San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2146	$2,400	$1.12	1d	1	0.51mi
6015 Akin Stroll San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$2,100	$1.37	43d	1	0.54mi
21066 Gravel Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2257	$2,400	$1.06	1d	1	0.61mi
22419 Carriage Bush San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2340	$2,395	$1.02	43d	1	0.62mi
5819 Akin Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,800	$1.09	23d	1	0.68mi
6035 Akin Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,100	$1.24	4d	1	0.76mi
6022 Akin Quay San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$2,200	$1.27	4d	1	0.77mi
5103 Gully Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,200	$1.24	12d	1	0.78mi
22219 Esperanza Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2428	$2,350	$0.97	2d	1	0.85mi
6050 Akin Cir San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	2054	$2,450	$1.19	2d	1	0.85mi
5015 Gully Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2023	$2,400	$1.19	1d	1	0.85mi
6074 Akin Cir San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2092	$2,300	$1.10	43d	1	0.87mi
21266 Watercourse Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2257	$2,400	$1.06	43d	1	0.88mi
5714 Agave Spine San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2011	$2,600	$1.29	43d	1	0.91mi
21339 Watercourse Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	0.91mi
22224 Backspin San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2323	$2,290	$0.99	10d	1	0.93mi
10822 Rindle Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2320	$1,949	$0.84	43d	1	1.00mi
20859 Rindle Ln San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,500	$1.23	19d	1	1.04mi
22618 Double Bogey San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,950	$1.13	3d	1	1.04mi
22626 Double Bogey San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2309	$2,500	$1.08	43d	1	1.05mi
5131 Blind Shot San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	43d	1	1.08mi
22507 Green Jacket San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,100	$1.37	43d	1	1.09mi
21027 Watercourse Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,195	$1.20	20d	1	1.10mi
23215 Langdon Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$2,550	$1.23	2d	1	1.29mi
22763 Tee Shot San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2041	$2,300	$1.13	43d	1	1.31mi
5707 Tpc Pkwy San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.0–3.0	1013	$1,564	$1.54	1d	19	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $274,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $289,000 Active 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Clean design meets smart living. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home with a 2-car attached garage features high ceilings, open-concept living, and natural light throughout. The kitchen flows seamlessly with granite counters and ample cabinetry—perfect for hosting or everyday use. Private primary suite plus flexible secondary bedrooms. Located in Wortham Oaks near Wortham Oaks Park, with quick access to H-E-B Plus! at Bulverde Rd, Stone Oak shopping and dining, and TPC San Antonio Golf Club. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner.

15. 2024-04-08
    status Pending
16. 2024-03-14
    historical
17. 2024-03-12
    historical Active Option
18. 2024-02-03
    price $300,000
19. 2023-11-18
    price $310,000
20. 2023-08-02
    price $320,000
21. 2023-03-11
    listed $330,000 New
22. 2015-01-18
    status Pending
23. 2015-01-12
    historical Active Option
24. 2015-01-12
    historical
25. 2014-12-19
    listed $204,500 New
26. 2014-02-19
    soldstatus
27. 2014-02-18
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2014-01-28
    status Pending
29. 2014-01-21
    historical Active Option
30. 2014-01-17
    price $205,000 Price Change
31. 2013-12-11
    price $197,000 Price Change
32. 2013-10-21
    price $195,000 Price Change
33. 2013-09-11
    price $199,990 Price Change
34. 2013-08-29
    price $204,000 Price Change
35. 2013-08-23
    listed $205,000 New
36. 2013-02-23
    historical
37. 2012-04-12
    listed $210,000
38. 2007-06-28
    soldstatus
39. 2006-10-23
    listed $201,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,431 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,431 · $453/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$5,431
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$8,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,657
• Household income: $147,727
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 257.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 25% Black 9% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.32%
• Current HPI: 227.8859
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-08 Pending — LERA
• 2024-03-14 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-03-12 Contingent — LERA
• 2024-02-03 Price Changed $300,000 LERA
• 2023-11-18 Price Changed $310,000 LERA
• 2023-08-02 Price Changed $320,000 LERA
• 2023-03-11 Listed $330,000 LERA
• 2015-01-18 Pending — LERA
• 2015-01-12 Contingent — LERA
• 2015-01-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2014-12-19 Listed $204,500 LERA
• 2014-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-18 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2014-01-28 Pending — LERA
• 2014-01-21 Contingent — LERA
• 2014-01-17 Price Changed $205,000 LERA
• 2013-12-11 Price Changed $197,000 LERA
• 2013-10-21 Price Changed $195,000 LERA
• 2013-09-11 Price Changed $199,990 LERA
• 2013-08-29 Price Changed $204,000 LERA
• 2013-08-23 Listed $205,000 LERA
• 2013-02-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2012-04-12 Listed $210,000 LERA
• 2007-06-28 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2006-10-23 Listed $201,800 LERA

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,431 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.