16376 SW 27th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$285,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Land · 122 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot $180/sqft · at area comps Est $278k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

10 years Warranty - New Construction - Ready to move in. Welcome to 16376 SW 27th Circle, Ocala, FL 34473 — a beautifully designed single-story home that blends modern finishes with everyday comfort and value. This spacious home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering a functional open layout ideal for families or investors. The interior showcases durable vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas, while the bathrooms are finished with elegant porcelain tile, adding a refined and contemporary touch. Click on the #d virtual tour to see a decorated unit with the same floor plan. Thoughtfully built with clean lines and quality craftsmanship, this property delivers the feel of a high-end home while remaining affordable and move-in ready. Located in a growing area of Ocala, it presents an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors seeking strong value and modern design.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-791/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $285k implies a 1362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,038 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,608
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 2.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-56,559
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-78,557
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $964/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $273,350

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $15	+0% $-66	+5% $-147	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-147	+0% $-66	+5% $15	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $7	base $-66	+0.5pp $-140	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	23d	1	0.02mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	0.10mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	15d	1	0.11mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	15d	1	0.24mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.27mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	23d	1	0.41mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	23d	1	0.41mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.47mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	15d	1	0.49mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	23d	1	0.51mi
357 Marion Oaks Blvd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,695	$1.41	15d	1	0.55mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	23d	1	0.58mi
16910 SW 27th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,550	$1.37	23d	1	0.60mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	15d	1	0.61mi
485 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1077	$1,525	$1.42	23d	1	0.62mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	15d	1	0.62mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	23d	1	0.63mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	23d	1	0.65mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	15d	1	0.65mi
2220 SW 169th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	23d	1	0.67mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	15d	1	0.68mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	15d	1	0.70mi
16170 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	15d	1	0.71mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	23d	1	0.73mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	15d	1	0.73mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	23d	1	0.75mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	15d	1	0.78mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	15d	1	0.79mi
3540 SW 163rd Place Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,600	$1.32	23d	1	0.81mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	23d	1	0.81mi
16090 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,950	$1.08	15d	1	0.81mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	15d	1	0.81mi
16390 SW 17th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,825	$1.16	15d	1	0.81mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	23d	1	0.82mi
15755 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	23d	1	0.84mi
2584 SW 154th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,975	$1.58	23d	1	0.85mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	15d	1	0.88mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	15d	1	0.89mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	15d	1	0.96mi
1663 SW 167th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	15d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $285,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    listed $285,000 Active 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    10 years Warranty - New Construction - Ready to move in. Welcome to 16376 SW 27th Circle, Ocala, FL 34473 — a beautifully designed single-story home that blends modern finishes with everyday comfort and value. This spacious home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering a functional open layout ideal for families or investors. The interior showcases durable vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas, while the bathrooms are finished with elegant porcelain tile, adding a refined and contemporary touch. Click on the #d virtual tour to see a decorated unit with the same floor plan. Thoughtfully built with clean lines and quality craftsmanship, this property delivers the feel of a high-end home while remaining affordable and move-in ready. Located in a growing area of Ocala, it presents an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors seeking strong value and modern design.

18. 2005-01-05
    soldstatus $19,500
19. 2004-08-30
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,402/yr (+$117/mo · 145.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$964
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,410
• After-tax cash flow: $619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3700.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records
• 2004-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $964 · +160.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.