20942 Canary Wood Ln · Splendora, TX 77357

$219,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,545 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,928 sqft lot $142/sqft · 17% below area Est $266k · 17% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 20942 Canary Wood! This charming Single-Family home has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious one-story floor plan is perfect for families looking for comfort and convenience. Harrington Trails, by Rausch Coleman, is zoned to the highly sought after Splendora ISD. Enjoy immediate access to HWY 59 and only a 30-minute drive to Bush Intercontinental Airport. With Valley Ranch shopping center just 5 minutes away and Big Rivers water park nearby, this home is truly a hidden gem. Call today for a private​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ showing!

Key facts

• 5,928 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• IMMEDIATE ACCESS TO HWY 59
• VALLEY RANCH SHOPPING CENTER
• BIG RIVERS WATER PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,291 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,966
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -17.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14270 Moonflower Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+2%)	1mo	$253,990	$161	56
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+7%)	1mo	$260,990	$158	54
16210 Bergara Bend Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+7%)	1mo	$256,990	$155	54
14396 Oceanblue Way	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,665 (+8%)	1mo	$257,990	$155	53
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-6%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	50
14282 Moonflower Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-8%)	1mo	$239,990	$170	47
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-8%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	47
16507 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+11%)	1mo	$271,990	$158	47
16514 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+11%)	1mo	$270,990	$158	46
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-9%)	1mo	$235,990	$167	45
16502 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+14%)	1mo	$273,990	$156	43
16515 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+15%)	1mo	$272,990	$154	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-58,263
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-93,993
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$625 /mo · $7,502/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,447

Max offer price $172,291

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-207	+0% $-270	+5% $-332	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-353	+0% $-270	+5% $-186	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-159	-0.5pp $-214	base $-270	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	26d	1	0.35mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,095	$1.17	7d	57	0.53mi
14373 Twin Lakes Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,400	$0.74	45d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Welcome to 20942 Canary Wood! This charming Single-Family home has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious one-story floor plan is perfect for families looking for comfort and convenience. Harrington Trails, by Rausch Coleman, is zoned to the highly sought after Splendora ISD. Enjoy immediate access to HWY 59 and only a 30-minute drive to Bush Intercontinental Airport. With Valley Ranch shopping center just 5 minutes away and Big Rivers water park nearby, this home is truly a hidden gem. Call today for a private​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ showing!

2. 2026-05-07
   price $219,900 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Welcome to 20942 Canary Wood! This charming Single-Family home has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious one-story floor plan is perfect for families looking for comfort and convenience. Harrington Trails, by Rausch Coleman, is zoned to the highly sought after Splendora ISD. Enjoy immediate access to HWY 59 and only a 30-minute drive to Bush Intercontinental Airport. With Valley Ranch shopping center just 5 minutes away and Big Rivers water park nearby, this home is truly a hidden gem. Call today for a private​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ showing!

3. 2026-04-12
   listed $225,000 Active 644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (644 chars)

   Welcome to 20942 Canary Wood! This charming Single-Family home has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious one-story floor plan is perfect for families looking for comfort and convenience. Harrington Trails, by Rausch Coleman, is zoned to the highly sought after Splendora ISD. Enjoy immediate access to HWY 59 and only a 30-minute drive to Bush Intercontinental Airport. With Valley Ranch shopping center just 5 minutes away and Big Rivers water park nearby, this home is truly a hidden gem. Call today for a private​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ showing!

4. 2025-03-20
   historical $1,785
5. 2025-03-14
   price $1,785
6. 2025-03-07
   price $1,799
7. 2025-02-28
   listed $1,875
8. 2022-04-11
   price $1,595
9. 2021-11-05
   historical
10. 2021-07-29
    listed $247,340 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,502 · $625/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,502 · $625/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$7,502
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$6,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Splendora, TX is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's zoned to Splendora ISD and offers easy access to highways and local amenities. A few updates could further enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace sliding glass doors — Improves natural light and ventilation
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace sliding glass doors — Improves natural light and ventilation ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Rental Removed $1,785 RENT.
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $1,785 RENT.
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $1,799 RENT.
• 2025-02-28 Listed for Rent $1,875 RENT.
• 2022-04-11 Price Changed $1,595 RENT.
• 2021-11-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-29 Listed $247,340 HARMLS

Property tax history

+83.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,502 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.