10809 S Lake Mist Ln · Conroe, TX 77318

$209,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2006 5,749 sqft lot $98/sqft · 22% below area Est $270k · 22% under $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedrooms, 2.5-bath home with excellent opportunity as a comfortable family residence or a strong long-term rental investment. Located just five minutes from Lake Conroe, the property combines convenience with great potential. Inside, you’ll find soaring ceilings, oversized rooms, & an abundance of natural light throughout. The large island kitchen is designed for both everyday living & entertaining, featuring ample cabinet and counter space along with a generously sized walk-in pantry. The primary suite, conveniently located on the first floor, includes double sinks, a separate garden tub, a standalone shower, and two oversized walk-in closets for added comfort and storage. Situated in a gated neighborhood with boat ramps and quick access to Lake Conroe, this home also offers beautiful lake views from the upstairs bedrooms. With its spacious layout & family-friendly design, it’s a smart investment in a highly desirable area. A private backyard and access to a community pool.

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Lake views
• Private backyard

Tags

• LARGE ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• BOAT RAMPS
• LAKE VIEWS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-48/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (0.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,404
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -22.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10809 S Lake Mist Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,152 (0%)	1mo	$209,900	$98	99
10720 S Lake Mist Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (+3%)	1mo	$639,900	$289	80
10801 S Lake Mist Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,264 (+5%)	14mo	$289,000	$128	79
10917 S Lake Mist Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,176 (+1%)	15mo	$250,000	$115	76
10891 Decatur St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,207 (+3%)	9mo	$647,000	$293	69
13088 Laura Lake Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,891 (-12%)	6mo	$285,000	$151	66
10712 S Lake Mist Ln	0.22mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,072 (-4%)	12mo	$599,000	$289	65
13270 Hawthorne Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,133 (-1%)	13mo	$1,099,500	$515	64
12595 St Louis Ct	0.18mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,369 (+10%)	11mo	$875,000	$369	59
10318 Valley Dr S	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,148 (-0%)	8mo	$345,000	$161	58
10473 Valley Dr N	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,981 (-8%)	3mo	$374,900	$189	52
11029 N Lake Mist Ln	0.19mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,424 (+13%)	14mo	$625,000	$258	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-40,574
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-59,991
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$509 /mo · $6,104/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,235

Max offer price $209,200

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $55	+0% $-4	+5% $-63	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-92	+0% $-4	+5% $84	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $49	base $-4	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11971 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,965	$1.36	5d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-04-22
   price $209,900 1024-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1024 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedrooms, 2.5-bath home with excellent opportunity as a comfortable family residence or a strong long-term rental investment. Located just five minutes from Lake Conroe, the property combines convenience with great potential. Inside, you’ll find soaring ceilings, oversized rooms, & an abundance of natural light throughout. The large island kitchen is designed for both everyday living & entertaining, featuring ample cabinet and counter space along with a generously sized walk-in pantry. The primary suite, conveniently located on the first floor, includes double sinks, a separate garden tub, a standalone shower, and two oversized walk-in closets for added comfort and storage. Situated in a gated neighborhood with boat ramps and quick access to Lake Conroe, this home also offers beautiful lake views from the upstairs bedrooms. With its spacious layout & family-friendly design, it’s a smart investment in a highly desirable area. A private backyard and access to a community pool.

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $219,900 Active 1024-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1024 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedrooms, 2.5-bath home with excellent opportunity as a comfortable family residence or a strong long-term rental investment. Located just five minutes from Lake Conroe, the property combines convenience with great potential. Inside, you’ll find soaring ceilings, oversized rooms, & an abundance of natural light throughout. The large island kitchen is designed for both everyday living & entertaining, featuring ample cabinet and counter space along with a generously sized walk-in pantry. The primary suite, conveniently located on the first floor, includes double sinks, a separate garden tub, a standalone shower, and two oversized walk-in closets for added comfort and storage. Situated in a gated neighborhood with boat ramps and quick access to Lake Conroe, this home also offers beautiful lake views from the upstairs bedrooms. With its spacious layout & family-friendly design, it’s a smart investment in a highly desirable area. A private backyard and access to a community pool.

3. 2020-07-09
   soldstatus
4. 2020-07-07
   soldstatus Sold 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

5. 2020-06-16
   status Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

6. 2020-06-04
   status Option Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

7. 2020-05-30
   status Active 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

8. 2020-03-29
   status Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

9. 2020-03-18
   status Option Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

10. 2020-03-03
    price $182,000 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

11. 2019-11-22
    price $185,000 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

12. 2019-09-23
    price $195,000 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

13. 2019-07-26
    price $199,900 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

14. 2019-06-08
    listed $205,000 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Quaint 2 story home out of the hustle and bustle of the city! 4 bed, 2 ½ bath with the master downstairs. Tons of windows let in the natural light. Lake views from upstairs bedrooms. Private backyard and nice community pool.

15. 2019-02-07
    historical
16. 2018-11-14
    price $215,000
17. 2018-03-27
    listed $229,000 Active
18. 2012-09-01
    historical
19. 2012-02-17
    listed $139,900
20. 2011-03-28
    historical
21. 2011-03-13
    listed $139,900
22. 2011-01-10
    historical
23. 2010-01-20
    listed $149,900
24. 2008-05-17
    historical
25. 2007-10-01
    soldstatus
26. 2007-05-17
    listed $184,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,104 · $509/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,104 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$6,104
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$3,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2020-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-03-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-03 Price Changed $182,000 HARMLS
• 2019-11-22 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2019-09-23 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-26 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2019-06-08 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-11-14 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-27 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2012-09-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-02-17 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2011-03-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-03-13 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2011-01-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-01-20 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2008-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-17 Listed $184,650 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,104 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.