Aurora Plan · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,803 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aurora welcomes you with bright, open living spaces designed for easy Florida living. With 1,803 square feet of thoughtfully planned comfort, this single-story home blends modern convenience with the relaxed coastal style that defines Spanish Lakes. Inside, an inviting foyer leads to a spacious great room and dining area, perfect for hosting neighbors, holidays, or quiet evenings at home. The open kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, and a large pantry ideal for meal prep or entertaining without missing a moment of the conversation. The owner's suite features a generous layout with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom. Two additional bedrooms are in the back of the home off

Key facts

• Open living spaces
• Spacious great room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACES
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• LARGE PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING AREA
• TRADITIONAL GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: List price $279,990
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: New construction plan (Aurora)
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Living area of 1803 (living area provided)

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area (plan name: Aurora)
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $360,600.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-460 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,572/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,228 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Villa Blanca	0.16mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,840 (+2%)	1mo	$180,000	$98	84
44 Ecuador Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,767 (-2%)	15mo	$225,000	$127	74
5902 Walnut Park Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,766 (-2%)	2mo	$399,900	$226	71
65 Lavilla Way	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (-6%)	6mo	$299,000	$177	61
37 Lagos Del Norte	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,839 (+2%)	6mo	$305,000	$166	61
5817 Spanish River Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,766 (-2%)	16mo	$325,000	$184	59
6505 Citrus Park Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-14%)	9mo	$345,000	$223	44
7004 Bayard Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (-7%)	4mo	$334,990	$200	44
7004 Bayard Rd #10	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (-7%)	4mo	$334,990	$200	44
5704 Spanish River Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,609 (-11%)	11mo	$331,500	$206	40
600 25th St SW	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-8%)	20mo	$415,000	$250	33
6604 Santa Clara Blvd	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,599 (-11%)	20mo	$328,000	$205	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-87,687
• Equity at exit: $53,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-113,918
• Equity at exit: $31,178

Cash invested: $100,968 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,572 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$451 /mo · $5,409/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,154

Max offer price $294,048

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-211	-5% $-335	+0% $-460	+5% $-585	+10% $-709
Rent	-10% $-663	-5% $-562	+0% $-460	+5% $-358	+10% $-257
Rate	-1.0pp $-278	-0.5pp $-368	base $-460	+0.5pp $-553	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,150
• Closing costs: $10,818
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5642 Sunberry Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,950	$1.42	25d	1	0.50mi
2450 8th Ave SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,100	$1.51	22d	1	0.83mi
2320 Water Oaks Ln Unit 111 Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1811	$3,500	$1.93	22d	1	1.00mi
5510 Shannon Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,350	$1.47	15d	1	1.02mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	23d	1	1.04mi
7503 Paso Robles Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,000	$1.59	25d	1	1.06mi
3766 Harborside Ave Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,160	$1.65	15d	1	1.26mi
7704 Pacific Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1719	$2,500	$1.45	15d	1	1.30mi
23 Highland Dr SW Vero Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	1263	$2,950	$2.34	22d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,990 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,990 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $279,990 Active 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,199
• − Property taxes: −$5,409
• − Insurance: −$1,803
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,469
• − Management: −$2,469
• − Depreciation: −$10,490
• Taxable loss: −$11,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Aurora home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof and flooring, and the systems appear to be in good working order. The property has potential for further value through exterior painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Update the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern, boosting both resale and rental appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Update the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern, boosting both resale and rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B