21 23rd St SW · Rochester, MN 55902

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1985 9,060 sqft lot $141/sqft · 8% below area Est $328k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained home in desirable Southwest Rochester, offering comfort, convenience, and thoughtful updates throughout. This property features three bedrooms all conveniently located on one level—perfect for easy living and functional design. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, providing a modern touch and great space for cooking and entertaining. Recent improvements include a roof replacement within the last four years, updated bathroom tiled tub surround, and laundry/kitchen appliances within 5 years, giving you added peace of mind for years to come. With its practical layout and location in a sought-after neighborhood, this home is a fantastic opportunity you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• 9,060 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $198k; list at $300k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $236,511 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,577
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -6.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-64,055
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-84,786
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55902

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,326/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,605

Max offer price $266,383

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1508 2nd Ave SW Rochester, MN	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	43d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $299,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $304,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $304,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $304,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $304,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $314,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $314,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $314,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,900 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,900 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,900 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,900 Active 59 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $314,900 Active 58 DOM
20. 2026-05-07
    price $314,900 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained home in desirable Southwest Rochester, offering comfort, convenience, and thoughtful updates throughout. This property features three bedrooms all conveniently located on one level—perfect for easy living and functional design. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, providing a modern touch and great space for cooking and entertaining. Recent improvements include a roof replacement within the last four years, updated bathroom tiled tub surround, and laundry/kitchen appliances within 5 years, giving you added peace of mind for years to come. With its practical layout and location in a sought-after neighborhood, this home is a fantastic opportunity you won’t want to miss!

21. 2026-04-21
    price $324,900 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained home in desirable Southwest Rochester, offering comfort, convenience, and thoughtful updates throughout. This property features three bedrooms all conveniently located on one level—perfect for easy living and functional design. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, providing a modern touch and great space for cooking and entertaining. Recent improvements include a roof replacement within the last four years, updated bathroom tiled tub surround, and laundry/kitchen appliances within 5 years, giving you added peace of mind for years to come. With its practical layout and location in a sought-after neighborhood, this home is a fantastic opportunity you won’t want to miss!

22. 2026-04-03
    listed $339,900 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained home in desirable Southwest Rochester, offering comfort, convenience, and thoughtful updates throughout. This property features three bedrooms all conveniently located on one level—perfect for easy living and functional design. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, providing a modern touch and great space for cooking and entertaining. Recent improvements include a roof replacement within the last four years, updated bathroom tiled tub surround, and laundry/kitchen appliances within 5 years, giving you added peace of mind for years to come. With its practical layout and location in a sought-after neighborhood, this home is a fantastic opportunity you won’t want to miss!

23. 2026-04-02
    historical $339,900 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained home in desirable Southwest Rochester, offering comfort, convenience, and thoughtful updates throughout. This property features three bedrooms all conveniently located on one level—perfect for easy living and functional design. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, providing a modern touch and great space for cooking and entertaining. Recent improvements include a roof replacement within the last four years, updated bathroom tiled tub surround, and laundry/kitchen appliances within 5 years, giving you added peace of mind for years to come. With its practical layout and location in a sought-after neighborhood, this home is a fantastic opportunity you won’t want to miss!

24. 2018-12-11
    historical 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedrooms on the same level AND a HUGE 2 car attached garage! Tons of buyer friendly updates, move in condition, room to stretch your legs with all this square footage!!! Over the 1344 on the main floor alone! Make an appointment to view/show today!

25. 2018-12-10
    historical
26. 2017-06-16
    soldstatus $198,000
27. 2017-06-16
    soldstatus $198,000
28. 2017-05-10
    listed $198,900
29. 2013-06-26
    soldstatus $150,800 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedrooms on the same level AND a HUGE 2 car attached garage! Tons of buyer friendly updates, move in condition, room to stretch your legs with all this square footage!!! Over the 1344 on the main floor alone! Make an appointment to view/show today!

30. 2013-06-26
    soldstatus $150,800

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedrooms on the same level AND a HUGE 2 car attached garage! Tons of buyer friendly updates, move in condition, room to stretch your legs with all this square footage!!! Over the 1344 on the main floor alone! Make an appointment to view/show today!

31. 2013-04-16
    listed $147,900 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedrooms on the same level AND a HUGE 2 car attached garage! Tons of buyer friendly updates, move in condition, room to stretch your legs with all this square footage!!! Over the 1344 on the main floor alone! Make an appointment to view/show today!

32. 2013-04-16
    listed $147,900

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedrooms on the same level AND a HUGE 2 car attached garage! Tons of buyer friendly updates, move in condition, room to stretch your legs with all this square footage!!! Over the 1344 on the main floor alone! Make an appointment to view/show today!

33. 2011-12-01
    listed $149,900
34. 2011-12-01
    listed $159,900
35. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus $89,000
36. 1986-07-01
    soldstatus $78,740
37. 1985-02-01
    soldstatus $20,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,326 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,326 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,326
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,802
• After-tax cash flow: $-475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 26,464
• Household income: $120,611
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 728.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.29%
• Current HPI: 252.3502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1436.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $314,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $324,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Coming Soon $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-16 Sold (MLS) $198,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-10 Listed $198,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-26 Sold (MLS) $150,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-26 Sold (MLS) $150,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-16 Listed $147,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-16 Listed $147,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-01 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-01 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,740 Public Records
• 1985-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,326 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.