156 Flatrock Rd · Crooked Creek, GA 31024

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1994 1.03 ac lot $156/sqft · 16% below area Est $335k · 16% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled along the peaceful shoreline of Lake Sinclair, 156 Flatrock Road offers the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and true lakefront living. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway or a full-time residence, this property delivers the setting and space to enjoy the best of life on the water. This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a brand-new metal roof, providing long-term durability with timeless style. Inside, the welcoming living area is anchored by a warm wood-burning fireplace, creating a cozy atmosphere for relaxing evenings after a day on the lake. Natural light flows through the home, complementing the easy, livable layout designed for gathering with family and friends. Step outside onto the spacious back porch where you'll find sweeping water views and the perfect place to entertain, grill, or simply unwind while taking in the peaceful surroundings. With approximately 100 feet of water frontage, the property includes a private dock for convenient access to boating, fishing, swimming, and all the recreation Lake Sinclair has to offer. Additional improvements include a small storage shed near the water for lake gear and equipment, plus an impressive 36x36 shop with three bay doors near the home - ideal for boat storage, vehicles, hobbies, or workshop space. From quiet mornings with coffee overlooking the water to sunset cruises just steps from your backyard, this property captures the essence of lake living. Opportunities like this on Lake Sinclair don't come around often - come experience it for yourself.

Key facts

• 36x36 shop
• Spacious back porch
• Private dock

Tags

• BRAND NEW METAL ROOF
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS BACK PORCH
• PRIVATE DOCK
• 100 FEET OF WATER FRONTAGE
• 36X36 SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-447/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.7% in Crooked Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#613 in GA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam County (rural): math 33% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #86 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 524 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $280k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,839 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,177
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -16.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 Possum Point Dr	0.80mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,944 (+8%)	18mo	$254,000	$131	31
208 Possum Pt	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-12%)	22mo	$282,500	$178	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,815
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-44,978
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31024

• Active inventory: 524
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $273,421

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $42	+0% $-37	+5% $-116	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-124	+0% $-37	+5% $49	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $34	base $-37	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $280,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $280,000 Active 101 DOM
18. 2026-02-17
    listed $280,000 New 1576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1576 chars)

    Nestled along the peaceful shoreline of Lake Sinclair, 156 Flatrock Road offers the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and true lakefront living. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway or a full-time residence, this property delivers the setting and space to enjoy the best of life on the water. This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a brand-new metal roof, providing long-term durability with timeless style. Inside, the welcoming living area is anchored by a warm wood-burning fireplace, creating a cozy atmosphere for relaxing evenings after a day on the lake. Natural light flows through the home, complementing the easy, livable layout designed for gathering with family and friends. Step outside onto the spacious back porch where you'll find sweeping water views and the perfect place to entertain, grill, or simply unwind while taking in the peaceful surroundings. With approximately 100 feet of water frontage, the property includes a private dock for convenient access to boating, fishing, swimming, and all the recreation Lake Sinclair has to offer. Additional improvements include a small storage shed near the water for lake gear and equipment, plus an impressive 36x36 shop with three bay doors near the home - ideal for boat storage, vehicles, hobbies, or workshop space. From quiet mornings with coffee overlooking the water to sunset cruises just steps from your backyard, this property captures the essence of lake living. Opportunities like this on Lake Sinclair don't come around often - come experience it for yourself.

19. 2007-07-17
    soldstatus $146,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,201/yr (+$100/mo · 87.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$2,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,282
• After-tax cash flow: $836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam County
• NCES district ID: 1304260
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,038
• Composite: 26.9/100
• National rank: #7088
• State rank: #86 of 174 in GA

Livability — Crooked Creek

• Score: 39/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #27435

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Putnam County · 21,601 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 21,601
• Household income: $65,971
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 696.0

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,747 people
• By 2030: 20,163 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 18,680 · -10.0%
• By 2050: 17,117 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 13,269 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 9,234 · -55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.7% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.9 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+35.8 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.84%
• Current HPI: 269.8265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+91.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $280,000 GAMLS
• 2007-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.