812 Mountain Shadows Blvd #71 · Redding, CA 96001

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1977 $37/sqft · 45% below area Est $91k · 45% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bright and inviting manufactured home featuring an open floor plan with abundant natural light throughout. Recently updated with fresh interior paint and newer flooring, this move-in ready residence offers a comfortable and well-maintained living space. Conveniently located near shopping, parks, and major highways, yet nestled within a quiet, well-established community. Residents enjoy access to a community pool just steps away, along with a low-maintenance lifestyle in a peaceful, private setting. A great opportunity for buyers seeking comfort and convenience in an affordable, turnkey home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Community pool
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• QUIET COMMUNITY
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Model: United States; Metal skirting; Additional parcel: 113-280-003-000
• HOA & community: Located in Mountain Shadows park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Mobile home
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Awning-covered patio/porch; Deck; Level topography; Asphalt road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Oven
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Central Air
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Range; Washer; Oven; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.40%
• DSCR: 4.31
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,297
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -45.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
458 Balsawood Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	78
4555 Underwood Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$99,000	$69	76
301 Sapwood Dr #280	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$65,900	$46	72
323 Sapwood Dr Sp# 279 Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$89,000	$62	72
1350 Aztec Path #229	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	6mo	$95,000	$65	67
477 Logwood Dr Sp# 230 Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$82,000	$57	64
4587 Hardwood Blvd Sp#202 Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$95,000	$66	64
1318 Mountain Shadows Blvd #255	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-15%)	2mo	$95,000	$83	59
4576 Hickory Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$119,000	$99	55
362 Lemon Dr #24	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$76,100	$61	54
4649 Underwood Dr #257	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	54
4719 Maple Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+13%)	3mo	$181,500	$119	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $54,197
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.72×
• Total profit: $150,021
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96001

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $105/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $369

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $896	-5% $882	+0% $868	+5% $797	+10% $780
Rent	-10% $752	-5% $810	+0% $868	+5% $926	+10% $984
Rate	-1.0pp $893	-0.5pp $881	base $868	+0.5pp $855	+1.0pp $842

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4296 Clay St Unit 17 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	21d	1	0.08mi
4490 Alder St Unit C Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	21d	1	0.20mi
400 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,310	$1.46	13d	1	0.29mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,295	$1.31	13d	8	0.29mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.43mi
150 Masonic Ave Unit 1 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.59mi
170 Masonic Ave #4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.60mi
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	21d	1	0.64mi
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	13d	1	0.65mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	44d	1	0.94mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	44d	1	0.98mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,475	$1.95	13d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $50,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $59,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $59,000 Active 598-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $105 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$275/yr (+$23/mo · 262.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$105
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $10,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,445
• After-tax cash flow: $7,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,817
• Household income: $72,484
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.25%
• Current HPI: 291.6191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.55%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $50,000 SAOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $59,000 SAOR

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2020): $105 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.