5243 Celestial Ct · Manvel, TX 77583

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · Townhouse · 257 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $187/sqft · at area comps Est $277k · at est. $111/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One-story | 3 bedrooms | 2 baths | 1-car attached garage * * Photos are representative, selections & features may vary with community * * Common areas include open family room, kitchen and a casual dining area. Main suite with double sinks and walk-in closet. Utility room located between Bedroom 2 and 3. Secondary bath off entry foyer.

Key facts

• $111 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1737 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,727 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,549
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -2.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5223 Celestial Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	1mo	$274,990	$190	98
5251 Celestial Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	3mo	$274,990	$190	97
5235 Celestial Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	4mo	$274,990	$190	96
5230 Big Dipper Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$180	92
5226 Big Dipper Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	3mo	$270,000	$187	91
5255 Celestial Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+4%)	5mo	$284,990	$189	88
5246 Big Dipper Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+4%)	5mo	$275,990	$183	82
10115 Crescendo Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	6mo	$274,000	$189	80
5231 Celestial Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-6%)	4mo	$267,015	$196	79
10119 Crescendo Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+4%)	6mo	$280,000	$186	73
10035 Crescendo Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	21mo	$260,000	$180	70
10015 Crescendo Way	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-6%)	22mo	$268,240	$197	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-69,537
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-110,135
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $270,000 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 154 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1737
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$111
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,042

Max offer price $225,727

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-213	+0% $-306	+5% $-399	+10% $-493
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-411	+0% $-306	+5% $-201	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-170	-0.5pp $-237	base $-306	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	70d	1	0.26mi
4143 Champlain Way Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	38d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $270,000 Active 257 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $270,000 Active 256 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $270,000 Active 254 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $270,000 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $270,000 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $270,000 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $270,000 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $270,000 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 239 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 238 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 236 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 234 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $270,000 Active 232 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $270,000 Active 231 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $270,000 Active 230 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $270,000 Active 229 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $270,000 Active 228 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $270,000 Active 227 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $270,000 Active 226 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $270,000 Active 225 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $270,000 Active 224 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $270,000 Active 223 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $270,000 Active 222 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $270,000 Active 221 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $270,000 Active 220 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $270,000 Active 219 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $270,000 Active 218 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $270,000 Active 217 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $270,000 Active 216 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $270,000 Active 215 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $270,000 Active 214 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $270,000 Active 213 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $270,000 Active 212 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $270,000 Active 211 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $270,000 Active 209 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 208 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 207 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 206 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 203 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $270,000 Active 201 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $270,000 Active 200 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $270,000 Active 198 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $270,000 Active 196 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $270,000 Active 195 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $270,000 Active 194 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$6,469
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,549
• − Management: −$2,549
• − HOA: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$8,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a modern design with a spacious layout and high-quality finishes. It is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves resale value. ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Upgrades the kitchen and enhances the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $296,065 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $296,165 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $301,165 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $301,165 HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $296,165 HARMLS