Chestnut Plan · South Lebanon, OH 45039

$362,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · SingleFamily · 264 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for the perfect ranch-style home as your new home? Take a look at The Chestnut and its many optional upgrades. With the option to add a bonus room with a bedroom and full bathroom, you have the potential for 2,600+ square feet of living space in a ranch home. When you enter the home, you will see the first two bedrooms and a full bathroom. As you move throughout The Chestnut, notice the open floorplan layout to make the home feel larger. Entertaining for the holidays and events can be done with ease in this large open concept kitchen, dining, and living space. The L-Shaped kitchen ensures that you never feel left out when entertaining guests. With an included kitchen island, this space makes seating easy- the ideal gathering place in a home. Interested in upgrading your kitchen to the gourmet option? This is the perfect plan to take that extra step. Don't worry about running out of storage with a walk-in pantry and spacious cabinets lining the walls. The primary suite includes many additional features- including an optional single step ceiling, a large walk-in closet with the ability to connect with the utility room, and more. Upgrade your primary bathroom with an optional double bowl vanity, an optional tile shower, or an optional deluxe bathroom with a separate garden tub and shower. Visit any of our communities to learn more today!

Key facts

• L-shaped kitchen
• Bonus room
• Kitchen island

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• OPEN FLOORPLAN LAYOUT
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $362,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $357,591.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $363k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in South Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#279 in OH, #4,589 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $292,081 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,591
• List price: $362,990
• Delta: 1.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
946 Weeping Willow Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,757 (-2%)	8mo	$376,100	$214	73
6636 Honeysuckle Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,899 (+5%)	3mo	$370,000	$195	72
1201 Meadow Vista Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,892 (+5%)	11mo	$405,000	$214	70
1156 Meadow Vista Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-8%)	8mo	$410,000	$247	68
1152 Meadow Vista Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (-5%)	11mo	$390,000	$227	66
6711 Bayberry Ct	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,826 (+1%)	10mo	$412,000	$226	66
6788 Trillium Ct	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,864 (+4%)	8mo	$405,000	$217	65
926 Weeping Willow Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,004 (+11%)	11mo	$346,000	$173	60
588 Weeping Willow Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,624 (-10%)	9mo	$340,000	$209	50
476 Indian Pointe Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,630 (-10%)	7mo	$320,000	$196	49
259 Dakota Run	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,912 (+6%)	12mo	$365,000	$191	44
7037 Tradewind Ct	0.63mi	3/3.5	2,000 (+11%)	7mo	$390,000	$195	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $197,933
• Equity at exit: $322,146

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $624,033
• Equity at exit: $694,720

Cash invested: $100,125 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,875
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$447 /mo · $5,364/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,128

Max offer price $333,890

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $-40	+0% $-164	+5% $-287	+10% $-411
Rent	-10% $-395	-5% $-279	+0% $-164	+5% $-48	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-73	base $-164	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,398
• Closing costs: $10,728
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 Grandin Rd Maineville, OH	2.0	2.0	1460	$4,200	$2.88	3d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $362,990 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $362,990 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $362,990 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $362,990 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $362,990 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $362,990 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $362,990 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $362,990 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $362,990 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $362,990 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $362,990 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $362,990 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $362,990 Active 243 DOM
14. 2025-10-01
    listed $362,990 Active 1364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1364 chars)

    Looking for the perfect ranch-style home as your new home? Take a look at The Chestnut and its many optional upgrades. With the option to add a bonus room with a bedroom and full bathroom, you have the potential for 2,600+ square feet of living space in a ranch home. When you enter the home, you will see the first two bedrooms and a full bathroom. As you move throughout The Chestnut, notice the open floorplan layout to make the home feel larger. Entertaining for the holidays and events can be done with ease in this large open concept kitchen, dining, and living space. The L-Shaped kitchen ensures that you never feel left out when entertaining guests. With an included kitchen island, this space makes seating easy- the ideal gathering place in a home. Interested in upgrading your kitchen to the gourmet option? This is the perfect plan to take that extra step. Don't worry about running out of storage with a walk-in pantry and spacious cabinets lining the walls. The primary suite includes many additional features- including an optional single step ceiling, a large walk-in closet with the ability to connect with the utility room, and more. Upgrade your primary bathroom with an optional double bowl vanity, an optional tile shower, or an optional deluxe bathroom with a separate garden tub and shower. Visit any of our communities to learn more today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,031
• − Property taxes: −$5,364
• − Insurance: −$1,788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,804
• − Management: −$2,804
• − Depreciation: −$10,403
• Taxable loss: −$8,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,954
• After-tax cash flow: $-11/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can attract more buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can attract more buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can attract more buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — South Lebanon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #4589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• City population: 7,053
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Listed $362,990 Zillow