5734 Roadhouse Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$279,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,121 sqft · Land · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Private backyard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $239,041 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.16%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-35,953
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-29,760
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,238/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $285	+0% $206	+5% $127	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $111	+0% $206	+5% $300	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $277	base $206	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5734 Roadhouse Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,350	$1.11	0d	1	0.03mi
5940 Sahara Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,650	$1.56	0d	1	0.07mi
6075 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2777	$2,595	$0.93	17d	1	0.08mi
5919 Sahara Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,100	$1.31	26d	1	0.08mi
6086 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,995	$1.41	9d	1	0.09mi
6076 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2962	$2,595	$0.88	5d	1	0.10mi
6076 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2962	$2,900	$0.98	45d	1	0.10mi
6222 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,795	$1.27	14d	1	0.10mi
6229 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$1,950	$0.92	14d	1	0.12mi
6231 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2308	$2,300	$1.00	0d	1	0.13mi
6215 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,845	$1.15	45d	1	0.13mi
6211 Old Bridge Way Unit 6211OB Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,845	$1.31	4d	1	0.14mi
6040 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,990	$1.09	26d	1	0.19mi
6309 Tropicana Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	0.20mi
6310 Tropicana Ln Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2580	$2,635	$1.02	0d	1	0.21mi
6109 Harrah Ln Unit 6109HL Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,745	$1.25	4d	1	0.22mi
6103 Harrah Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,845	$1.31	4d	1	0.24mi
6101 Harrah Ln Unit 6101HL Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,745	$1.25	26d	1	0.24mi
6624 Charleston Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,045	$1.45	5d	1	0.26mi
6658 Charleston Dr Unit 6658CD Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,935	$1.21	9d	1	0.27mi
6012 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,845	$1.15	45d	1	0.27mi
4080 Dayton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1984	$2,295	$1.16	20d	1	0.65mi
1129 Clear Dusk Ln Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2520	$3,600	$1.43	45d	1	0.92mi
4424 Lassen Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,295	$1.16	45d	1	0.94mi
3122 Zapta Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,150	$1.28	45d	1	0.94mi
1229 Autumn Mist Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,795	$1.07	6d	1	1.01mi
3109 Chillingham Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,199	$1.01	4d	1	1.09mi
3112 Shorthorn Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,150	$1.48	9d	1	1.09mi
9225 Lone Cypress Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,070	$1.29	0d	1	1.12mi
3010 Saddleback Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,895	$1.23	45d	1	1.12mi
2043 Pleasant Knoll Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,099	$1.21	45d	1	1.15mi
3133 Angus Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,050	$1.22	45d	1	1.17mi
3088 Chillingham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$1,850	$1.13	45d	1	1.17mi
3024 Chico Dr Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2694	$2,350	$0.87	14d	1	1.17mi
17700 FM 548 Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2603	$4,000	$1.54	0d	1	1.22mi
3010 McCoy Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,050	$1.22	26d	1	1.24mi
1539 Wheatley Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2396	$2,995	$1.25	18d	1	1.24mi
1539 Wheatley Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2396	$2,800	$1.17	12d	1	1.24mi
3013 McCoy Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$1,895	$1.15	26d	1	1.27mi
1535 Calcot Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2036	$2,600	$1.28	17d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-21
   price $279,000 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $289,000 Active 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,868/yr (+$322/mo · 312.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,238
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$2,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$548
• After-tax cash flow: $3,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $279,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Listed $289,000 Zillow