1307 (#66) S Water St #66 · Silverton, OR 97381

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1980 $126/sqft · at area comps Est $150k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHECK OUT THAT SPACE RENT! 55+ easy living in serene Silverton community! Move right into your comfortably appointed 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with great floorplan including a spacious living room and formal dining, plus a secondary family room or dining area. Mudroom to back porch includes washer & dryer. Heat pump provides AC. Roof is 10 years old. Covered carport parking, roomy storage shed, nice yard, and a large covered deck. Pro photos coming!

Key facts

• Formal dining
• Heat pump
• Washer and dryer

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING
• SECONDARY FAMILY ROOM
• MUDROOM TO BACK PORCH
• WASHER AND DRYER
• HEAT PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.6% in Silverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#90 in OR, #4,448 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: cost of living D+, commute F.
• Silver Falls SD 4J (town): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #8 of 58 in OR (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $145k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.82%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,285
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -3.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1307 S Water St #40	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	4mo	$144,000	$121	91
1307 S Water (#2) St Unit 2	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	12mo	$147,500	$128	90
1307 S Water St #14	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	2mo	$124,500	$100	85
1307 S Water St #62	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,060 (-8%)	6mo	$50,000	$47	82
1307 S Water St #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+15%)	3mo	$164,900	$125	73
1307 S Water St #58	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	3mo	$179,500	$139	72
1307 S Water St #57	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	18mo	$109,000	$87	71
1307 S Water St #59	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,044 (-9%)	22mo	$117,900	$113	61
425 B St	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	6mo	$355,000	$284	54
1418 Pine St NE Unit B	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	24mo	$112,900	$112	46
410 Washington St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	14mo	$355,000	$329	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,681
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $57,464
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97381

• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $507/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,092

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
329 Fossholm St NE Silverton, OR	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,986	$1.81	14d	4	0.20mi
950 N 2nd St Silverton, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,674	$2.02	21d	3	0.57mi
950 N 2nd St Silverton, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,674	$2.02	14d	3	0.57mi
917 Bryan Ct Silverton, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	23d	1	0.62mi
915 Bryan Ct Silverton, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	23d	1	0.63mi
405 N 3rd St Silverton, OR	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	43d	1	0.63mi
903 Bryan Ct Silverton, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	23d	1	0.64mi
905 Bryan Ct Silverton, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	23d	1	0.65mi
965 Todd Ct Silverton, OR	3.0	2.5	1100	$2,400	$2.18	43d	1	0.68mi
642 Parker Loop Silverton, OR	2.0	1.0	732	$1,800	$2.46	21d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $145,000 Active 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    CHECK OUT THAT SPACE RENT! 55+ easy living in serene Silverton community! Move right into your comfortably appointed 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with great floorplan including a spacious living room and formal dining, plus a secondary family room or dining area. Mudroom to back porch includes washer & dryer. Heat pump provides AC. Roof is 10 years old. Covered carport parking, roomy storage shed, nice yard, and a large covered deck. Pro photos coming!

18. 2017-06-17
    soldstatus $27,950 Sold 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    SILVERTON SENIOR MHP. Very nice and well maintained 1980 MFG in one of the most desirable Manufactured home communities in the county. New 30 yr Roof is 3 yrs old. Vinyl windows t/o. AC. New elec meter base and panel. Dishwasher 6 mo. old. Furnace recently up dated and repaired. Extra storage shed. Walk in shower in both baths. New flooring and sub floors in both baths. All appliances are included. Buyers must be park approved prior to closing.

19. 2017-04-28
    historical Active under Contract 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    SILVERTON SENIOR MHP. Very nice and well maintained 1980 MFG in one of the most desirable Manufactured home communities in the county. New 30 yr Roof is 3 yrs old. Vinyl windows t/o. AC. New elec meter base and panel. Dishwasher 6 mo. old. Furnace recently up dated and repaired. Extra storage shed. Walk in shower in both baths. New flooring and sub floors in both baths. All appliances are included. Buyers must be park approved prior to closing.

20. 2017-04-05
    listed $29,500 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    SILVERTON SENIOR MHP. Very nice and well maintained 1980 MFG in one of the most desirable Manufactured home communities in the county. New 30 yr Roof is 3 yrs old. Vinyl windows t/o. AC. New elec meter base and panel. Dishwasher 6 mo. old. Furnace recently up dated and repaired. Extra storage shed. Walk in shower in both baths. New flooring and sub floors in both baths. All appliances are included. Buyers must be park approved prior to closing.

21. 2014-07-30
    soldstatus $19,500 Sold
22. 2014-06-16
    historical Active under Contract
23. 2014-06-06
    listed $19,900 Active
24. 2012-09-11
    historical
25. 2009-03-20
    soldstatus $18,500
26. 2009-03-20
    soldstatus $18,500
27. 2009-02-25
    historical
28. 2009-02-25
    historical
29. 2008-03-19
    listed $19,500
30. 2008-03-18
    listed $19,500
31. 2003-08-28
    listed $27,000
32. 1996-09-05
    soldstatus $38,500
33. 1993-10-15
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$900/yr (+$75/mo · 177.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$507
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $4,699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,128
• After-tax cash flow: $5,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Falls SD 4J
• NCES district ID: 4111450
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,066
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3224
• State rank: #8 of 58 in OR

Livability — Silverton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #4448

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silverton, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 15,405
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 15,405
• Household income: $89,383
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 496.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.05%
• Current HPI: 305.0118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+262.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $145,000 WVMLS
• 2017-06-17 Sold (MLS) $27,950 WVMLS
• 2017-04-28 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2017-04-05 Listed $29,500 WVMLS
• 2014-07-30 Sold (MLS) $19,500 WVMLS
• 2014-06-16 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2014-06-06 Listed $19,900 WVMLS
• 2012-09-11 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2009-03-20 Sold (MLS) $18,500 WVMLS
• 2009-03-20 Sold (MLS) $18,500 RMLS
• 2009-02-25 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2009-02-25 Delisted — RMLS
• 2008-03-19 Listed $19,500 WVMLS
• 2008-03-18 Listed $19,500 RMLS
• 2003-08-28 Listed $27,000 WVMLS
• 1996-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records
• 1993-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $507 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.