1781 Forest Run Ln · Auburndale, FL 33823

$318,070

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · Land · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 7,200 sqft lot $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gardenia floorplan features an open-concept layout where the kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area, great room, and outdoor patio. The private primary suite provides a spacious retreat for relaxation.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Community cabana
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY CABANA
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES
• EASY ACCESS TO TAMPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applies; Home warranty included; Energy-efficient features: appliances, energy monitoring system, HVAC, insulation, lighting, thermostat, water heater, windows
• HOA & community: HOA: The Reserve at Van Oaks — $150 annually ($12.50/month); HOA fee required; Community features: pool, sidewalks, street lights, reclaimed water irrigation; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (projected completion July 9, 2026); Faces east
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Meritage Homes (model: GARDENIA); Under construction / new construction
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Concrete road surface; Public maintained road; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Exhaust fan; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-417 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walter Caldwell Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 895 students, 58% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $213,632 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-77,751
• Equity at exit: $47,425

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-100,427
• Equity at exit: $27,501

Cash invested: $89,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,509/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,664

Max offer price $244,367

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-237	-5% $-327	+0% $-417	+5% $-507	+10% $-597
Rent	-10% $-586	-5% $-502	+0% $-417	+5% $-333	+10% $-248
Rate	-1.0pp $-257	-0.5pp $-336	base $-417	+0.5pp $-500	+1.0pp $-583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,518
• Closing costs: $9,542
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1772 Forest Run Ln Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,000	$1.17	15d	1	0.04mi
132 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,805	$1.46	4d	1	0.33mi
161 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,895	$1.57	24d	1	0.34mi
217 Meadow Vue Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,785	$1.31	24d	1	0.39mi
1142 Oak Valley Dr Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,115	$1.15	4d	1	0.49mi
332 Cascara Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,995	$1.54	4d	1	0.49mi
103 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,810	$1.43	4d	1	0.50mi
328 San Mauro Dr Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	24d	1	0.54mi
1074 Oak Valley Dr Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,850	$1.09	4d	1	0.63mi
802 Arietta Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	3.0	2077	$2,150	$1.04	24d	1	0.64mi
166 Diamond Ridge Blvd Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,755	$1.38	24d	1	0.68mi
2224 Palmview Cir E Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	2106	$2,326	$1.10	15d	1	0.84mi
812 Auburn Grove Ct Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,200	$1.20	24d	1	0.88mi
1305 Carr Dr Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,800	$1.20	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,070 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,070 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,070 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,070 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,070 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $318,070 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,070 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $318,070 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $318,070 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $318,070 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,070 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,070 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,070 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,070 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    price $318,070 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    The Gardenia floorplan features an open-concept layout where the kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area, great room, and outdoor patio. The private primary suite provides a spacious retreat for relaxation.

16. 2026-05-19
    listed $318,070 Active
17. 2026-05-01
    status Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    The Gardenia floorplan features an open-concept layout where the kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area, great room, and outdoor patio. The private primary suite provides a spacious retreat for relaxation.

18. 2026-04-24
    historical 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    The Gardenia floorplan features an open-concept layout where the kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area, great room, and outdoor patio. The private primary suite provides a spacious retreat for relaxation.

19. 2026-04-23
    status Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    The Gardenia floorplan features an open-concept layout where the kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area, great room, and outdoor patio. The private primary suite provides a spacious retreat for relaxation.

20. 2026-04-23
    price $333,070 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    The Gardenia floorplan features an open-concept layout where the kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area, great room, and outdoor patio. The private primary suite provides a spacious retreat for relaxation.

21. 2025-10-24
    historical 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    The Gardenia floorplan features an open-concept layout where the kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area, great room, and outdoor patio. The private primary suite provides a spacious retreat for relaxation.

22. 2025-10-22
    listed $334,665 Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    The Gardenia floorplan features an open-concept layout where the kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining area, great room, and outdoor patio. The private primary suite provides a spacious retreat for relaxation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,509 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,509 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,817
• − Property taxes: −$3,509
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$9,253
• Taxable loss: −$10,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,587
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $318,070 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Listed $318,070 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $333,070 Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $334,665 Zillow