16400 Bubbling Wells Dr #266 · Garnet, CA 92240

$80,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 831 sqft · Manufactured · 146 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition $96/sqft · 105% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a truly one-of-a-kind 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom park model home, plus detached BONUS room! The main house offers approximately 831 square feet, located in the desirable Sands RV & Golf Resort. This home features an open concept floor plan with an upgraded kitchen and bathroom, offering an exceptional blend of comfort, privacy, and resort-style living. One of the main focal points of the property is the oversized, ultra-private rear patio, complete with a tranquil fountain, multiple seating areas, and beautiful hardscape—perfect for entertaining or relaxing in a serene desert setting—along with a detached guest bedroom that provides rare flexibility for visitors, a home office, or hobby space. Inside, the light-filled living, kitchen, and dining areas flow seamlessly together, enhanced by vaulted ceilings, expansive windows, and updated flooring, while the primary bedroom offers built-in storage and comfortable accommodations. A highly desirable feature is the interior utility room with a stackable washer and dryer and an additional refrigerator, adding everyday convenience. Offered turnkey furnished and boasting proven rental history, this property is ideal for immediate enjoyment as a full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity, with additional highlights including a covered carport, storage shed, mature landscaping, and access to resort-style amenities such as golf, pool and spa, pickleball, clubhouse, fitness facilities, dog parks, and an active social calendar. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, rental requirements, square footage, and all community amenities.

Key facts

• Tranquil fountain
• Detached bonus room
• Oversized rear patio

Tags

• DETACHED BONUS ROOM
• OVERSIZED REAR PATIO
• TRANQUIL FOUNTAIN
• MULTIPLE SEATING AREAS
• BEAUTIFUL HARDSCAPE
• DETACHED GUEST BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 5.8% in Garnet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#971 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bubbling Wells Elementary (665 students, 97% FRL); Desert Springs Middle (803 students, 99% FRL); Desert Hot Springs High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,742 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 521 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.79%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,090
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: 104.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #2	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+1%)	16mo	$24,900	$30	54
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #231	0.55mi	2/1.5 (+1)	792 (-5%)	13mo	$30,000	$38	48
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #159	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (-6%)	19mo	$29,000	$37	44
15500 Bubbling Wls #210	0.63mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-13%)	3mo	$34,500	$48	41
15500 Bubbling Wls #50	0.55mi	2/2.0 (+1)	800 (-4%)	22mo	$55,000	$69	40
15500 Bubbling Wells Road Rd #6	0.59mi	2/1.0 (+1)	728 (-12%)	11mo	$18,000	$25	37
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #81	0.55mi	2/2.0 (+1)	900 (+8%)	18mo	$55,000	$61	36
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #273	0.63mi	2/2.0 (+1)	868 (+4%)	22mo	$67,900	$78	36
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #216	0.54mi	2/2.0 (+1)	744 (-10%)	21mo	$35,000	$47	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $31,846
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $88,506
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 521
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $714	+0% $687	+5% $659	+10% $631
Rent	-10% $563	-5% $625	+0% $687	+5% $749	+10% $811
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $707	base $687	+0.5pp $666	+1.0pp $645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15935 Mary Cir Desert Hot Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,350	$2.45	19d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $80,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $80,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $80,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $80,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-02-26
   status Active 1641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1641 chars)

   Welcome to a truly one-of-a-kind 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom park model home, plus detached BONUS room! The main house offers approximately 831 square feet, located in the desirable Sands RV & Golf Resort. This home features an open concept floor plan with an upgraded kitchen and bathroom, offering an exceptional blend of comfort, privacy, and resort-style living. One of the main focal points of the property is the oversized, ultra-private rear patio, complete with a tranquil fountain, multiple seating areas, and beautiful hardscape—perfect for entertaining or relaxing in a serene desert setting—along with a detached guest bedroom that provides rare flexibility for visitors, a home office, or hobby space. Inside, the light-filled living, kitchen, and dining areas flow seamlessly together, enhanced by vaulted ceilings, expansive windows, and updated flooring, while the primary bedroom offers built-in storage and comfortable accommodations. A highly desirable feature is the interior utility room with a stackable washer and dryer and an additional refrigerator, adding everyday convenience. Offered turnkey furnished and boasting proven rental history, this property is ideal for immediate enjoyment as a full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity, with additional highlights including a covered carport, storage shed, mature landscaping, and access to resort-style amenities such as golf, pool and spa, pickleball, clubhouse, fitness facilities, dog parks, and an active social calendar. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, rental requirements, square footage, and all community amenities.

7. 2026-02-13
   historical Active Under Contract 1641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1641 chars)

   Welcome to a truly one-of-a-kind 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom park model home, plus detached BONUS room! The main house offers approximately 831 square feet, located in the desirable Sands RV & Golf Resort. This home features an open concept floor plan with an upgraded kitchen and bathroom, offering an exceptional blend of comfort, privacy, and resort-style living. One of the main focal points of the property is the oversized, ultra-private rear patio, complete with a tranquil fountain, multiple seating areas, and beautiful hardscape—perfect for entertaining or relaxing in a serene desert setting—along with a detached guest bedroom that provides rare flexibility for visitors, a home office, or hobby space. Inside, the light-filled living, kitchen, and dining areas flow seamlessly together, enhanced by vaulted ceilings, expansive windows, and updated flooring, while the primary bedroom offers built-in storage and comfortable accommodations. A highly desirable feature is the interior utility room with a stackable washer and dryer and an additional refrigerator, adding everyday convenience. Offered turnkey furnished and boasting proven rental history, this property is ideal for immediate enjoyment as a full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity, with additional highlights including a covered carport, storage shed, mature landscaping, and access to resort-style amenities such as golf, pool and spa, pickleball, clubhouse, fitness facilities, dog parks, and an active social calendar. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, rental requirements, square footage, and all community amenities.

8. 2026-01-09
   listed $98,500 Active 1641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1641 chars)

   Welcome to a truly one-of-a-kind 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom park model home, plus detached BONUS room! The main house offers approximately 831 square feet, located in the desirable Sands RV & Golf Resort. This home features an open concept floor plan with an upgraded kitchen and bathroom, offering an exceptional blend of comfort, privacy, and resort-style living. One of the main focal points of the property is the oversized, ultra-private rear patio, complete with a tranquil fountain, multiple seating areas, and beautiful hardscape—perfect for entertaining or relaxing in a serene desert setting—along with a detached guest bedroom that provides rare flexibility for visitors, a home office, or hobby space. Inside, the light-filled living, kitchen, and dining areas flow seamlessly together, enhanced by vaulted ceilings, expansive windows, and updated flooring, while the primary bedroom offers built-in storage and comfortable accommodations. A highly desirable feature is the interior utility room with a stackable washer and dryer and an additional refrigerator, adding everyday convenience. Offered turnkey furnished and boasting proven rental history, this property is ideal for immediate enjoyment as a full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity, with additional highlights including a covered carport, storage shed, mature landscaping, and access to resort-style amenities such as golf, pool and spa, pickleball, clubhouse, fitness facilities, dog parks, and an active social calendar. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, rental requirements, square footage, and all community amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,778
• After-tax cash flow: $6,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This park model home in a desirable resort setting offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. The property's location and features make it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace sliding glass doors — Improves natural light and air circulation
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace sliding glass doors — Improves natural light and air circulation ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garnet

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #971
• US rank: #24574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garnet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $98,500 CRMLS