9455 E Cavalry Dr · Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$900,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1998 7,864 sqft lot $344/sqft · 15% below area Est $1054k · 15% under $100/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning Edmunds home offers rare golf course living without the worry of stray balls, just 2 minutes from the clubhouse in the highly sought-after Legend Trail community. Positioned along the 9th green, it captures sweeping mountain and golf course views. The desirable open-concept floor plan features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, with the 3rd bedroom ideal as an office. Light-filled interiors, neutral finishes, and luxury vinyl plank flooring (2020) throughout create a clean, modern feel. The kitchen offers a breakfast bar, gas cooktop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and Bosch dishwasher. Step into the low-maintenance resort-styled backyard with sliding doors offering a spacious covered patio and a putting green. Additional updates include a new roof (2024), two HVAC units (2023), stainless steel appliances (2024/2025), reverse osmosis system (2024), Kinetico water softener system, hot water heater (2023), exterior paint (2022), and fountain pump (2023). A rare opportunity to enjoy turnkey golf course living in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

Key facts

• 7,864 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $900k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $840k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $635k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $635k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Sun Academy (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #208 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 14% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 598 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($873k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $635,486 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,053,523
• List price: $900,000
• Delta: -14.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9415 E Cavalry Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,503 (-4%)	0mo	$950,000	$380	87
9391 E Cavalry Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,508 (-4%)	5mo	$950,000	$379	82
9390 E Sandy Vista Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,504 (-4%)	3mo	$1,280,000	$511	78
9459 E Sandy Vista Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,801 (+7%)	5mo	$1,243,125	$444	75
9463 E Cavalry Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	2,256 (-14%)	1mo	$925,000	$410	71
9359 E Cavalry Dr	0.15mi	3/3.5	2,920 (+12%)	2mo	$1,700,000	$582	70
34440 N 99th St	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,719 (+4%)	4mo	$960,000	$353	61
9687 E Cavalry Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,452 (-6%)	4mo	$875,000	$357	60
9785 E Preserve Way	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,503 (-4%)	3mo	$1,075,000	$429	58
34695 N 99th Way	0.68mi	3/3.5	2,841 (+8%)	4mo	$1,345,000	$473	49
34599 N 99th Way	0.69mi	3/3.5	2,840 (+8%)	5mo	$1,462,500	$515	48
34397 N 99th Way	0.73mi	3/3.5	2,845 (+9%)	3mo	$1,350,000	$475	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-168,071
• Equity at exit: $134,193

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-176,177
• Equity at exit: $77,816

Cash invested: $252,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,720
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,015/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,335
• Net cashflow: $-342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,788

Max offer price $839,530

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $-88	+0% $-342	+5% $-597	+10% $-852
Rent	-10% $-844	-5% $-593	+0% $-342	+5% $-91	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $-113	base $-342	+0.5pp $-576	+1.0pp $-813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $225,000
• Closing costs: $27,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9562 E Chuckwagon Ln Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1832	$3,500	$1.91	45d	1	0.14mi
9535 E Raindance Trl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1832	$7,500	$4.09	45d	1	0.16mi
9616 E Chuckwagon Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1832	$7,000	$3.82	45d	1	0.18mi
9554 E Raindance Trl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1832	$6,500	$3.55	26d	1	0.19mi
34748 N 93rd Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	2256	$8,500	$3.77	45d	1	0.20mi
9338 E Prairie Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2515	$7,000	$2.78	45d	1	0.22mi
9583 E Raindance Trl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1832	$3,650	$1.99	45d	1	0.23mi
9255 E Broken Arrow Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2127	$6,850	$3.22	45d	1	0.25mi
9303 E Whitewing Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2167	$2,800	$1.29	14d	1	0.29mi
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #74 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3000	$14,000	$4.67	0d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 1081-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1081 chars)

   This stunning Edmunds home offers rare golf course living without the worry of stray balls, just 2 minutes from the clubhouse in the highly sought-after Legend Trail community. Positioned along the 9th green, it captures sweeping mountain and golf course views. The desirable open-concept floor plan features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, with the 3rd bedroom ideal as an office. Light-filled interiors, neutral finishes, and luxury vinyl plank flooring (2020) throughout create a clean, modern feel. The kitchen offers a breakfast bar, gas cooktop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and Bosch dishwasher. Step into the low-maintenance resort-styled backyard with sliding doors offering a spacious covered patio and a putting green. Additional updates include a new roof (2024), two HVAC units (2023), stainless steel appliances (2024/2025), reverse osmosis system (2024), Kinetico water softener system, hot water heater (2023), exterior paint (2022), and fountain pump (2023). A rare opportunity to enjoy turnkey golf course living in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $900,000 1081-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1081 chars)

   This stunning Edmunds home offers rare golf course living without the worry of stray balls, just 2 minutes from the clubhouse in the highly sought-after Legend Trail community. Positioned along the 9th green, it captures sweeping mountain and golf course views. The desirable open-concept floor plan features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, with the 3rd bedroom ideal as an office. Light-filled interiors, neutral finishes, and luxury vinyl plank flooring (2020) throughout create a clean, modern feel. The kitchen offers a breakfast bar, gas cooktop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and Bosch dishwasher. Step into the low-maintenance resort-styled backyard with sliding doors offering a spacious covered patio and a putting green. Additional updates include a new roof (2024), two HVAC units (2023), stainless steel appliances (2024/2025), reverse osmosis system (2024), Kinetico water softener system, hot water heater (2023), exterior paint (2022), and fountain pump (2023). A rare opportunity to enjoy turnkey golf course living in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $950,000 Active 1081-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1081 chars)

   This stunning Edmunds home offers rare golf course living without the worry of stray balls, just 2 minutes from the clubhouse in the highly sought-after Legend Trail community. Positioned along the 9th green, it captures sweeping mountain and golf course views. The desirable open-concept floor plan features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, with the 3rd bedroom ideal as an office. Light-filled interiors, neutral finishes, and luxury vinyl plank flooring (2020) throughout create a clean, modern feel. The kitchen offers a breakfast bar, gas cooktop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and Bosch dishwasher. Step into the low-maintenance resort-styled backyard with sliding doors offering a spacious covered patio and a putting green. Additional updates include a new roof (2024), two HVAC units (2023), stainless steel appliances (2024/2025), reverse osmosis system (2024), Kinetico water softener system, hot water heater (2023), exterior paint (2022), and fountain pump (2023). A rare opportunity to enjoy turnkey golf course living in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

4. 2026-04-16
   historical

   Show marketing remark (1081 chars)

   This stunning Edmunds home offers rare golf course living without the worry of stray balls, just 2 minutes from the clubhouse in the highly sought-after Legend Trail community. Positioned along the 9th green, it captures sweeping mountain and golf course views. The desirable open-concept floor plan features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, with the 3rd bedroom ideal as an office. Light-filled interiors, neutral finishes, and luxury vinyl plank flooring (2020) throughout create a clean, modern feel. The kitchen offers a breakfast bar, gas cooktop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and Bosch dishwasher. Step into the low-maintenance resort-styled backyard with sliding doors offering a spacious covered patio and a putting green. Additional updates include a new roof (2024), two HVAC units (2023), stainless steel appliances (2024/2025), reverse osmosis system (2024), Kinetico water softener system, hot water heater (2023), exterior paint (2022), and fountain pump (2023). A rare opportunity to enjoy turnkey golf course living in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

5. 2026-02-28
   price $975,000
6. 2026-01-29
   price $998,000
7. 2025-11-11
   price $1,050,000
8. 2025-09-24
   listed $1,085,000 Active
9. 2023-10-31
   soldstatus $934,000 Closed
10. 2023-10-31
    soldstatus $934,000
11. 2023-10-10
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
12. 2023-09-21
    listed $949,950 Active
13. 2023-07-01
    historical
14. 2023-05-25
    listed $949,950 Active
15. 2019-10-09
    status Pending
16. 2019-10-09
    listed $519,000 Active
17. 2019-10-09
    soldstatus $485,000 Closed
18. 2019-10-09
    soldstatus $485,000
19. 2019-10-08
    soldstatus $485,000 Closed
20. 2019-09-26
    status Pending
21. 2019-09-24
    price $519,000
22. 2019-08-08
    listed $549,000 Active
23. 1996-04-30
    soldstatus $3,847,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,015 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,940 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,925/yr (+$327/mo · 194.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,414
• − Property taxes: −$2,015
• − Insurance: −$4,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,101
• − Management: −$6,101
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$26,182
• Taxable loss: −$20,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,861
• After-tax cash flow: $753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-76.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $900,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $950,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $975,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $998,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $1,050,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $1,085,000 ARMLS
• 2023-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $934,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-31 Sold (MLS) $934,000 ARMLS
• 2023-10-10 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-09-21 Listed $949,950 ARMLS
• 2023-07-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-05-25 Listed $949,950 ARMLS
• 2019-10-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-10-09 Listed $519,000 ARMLS
• 2019-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $485,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-09 Sold (MLS) $485,000 ARMLS
• 2019-10-08 Sold (MLS) $485,000 ARMLS
• 2019-09-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-09-24 Price Changed $519,000 ARMLS
• 2019-08-08 Listed $549,000 ARMLS
• 1996-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $3,847,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,015 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.