1016 Noe St Unit B · San Francisco, CA 94114

$623,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 694 sqft · Condo public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1900 $898/sqft · 30% below area Est $1001k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This top-floor condominium can be purchased individually or as part of a rare three-residence offering, including 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, currently available together at a combined price of $2,500,000, or approximately $722 per square foot. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, presenting a unique opportunity for expanded investment, multi-generational living, or long-term value in one of San Francisco's most sought-after neighborhoods. Delivered vacant, and positioned at the top of a fully condo-converted building, this residence is delivered vacant and features a sizable private deck, offering strong indoor-outdoor potential. Offered as a fixer, it presents meaningful upside for an owner-user, contractor, or investor seeking to add value and customize a well-located asset. Situated in the heart of Noe Valley, moments from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, and the neighborhood's best cafes and boutiques.

Key facts

• Private deck
• 24th street corridor
• Built 1900

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• STEPS FROM WHOLE FOODS
• 24TH STREET CORRIDOR
• NEIGHBORHOOD'S BEST CAFES
• NEIGHBORHOOD'S BEST BOUTIQUES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $623k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-559 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $524k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $401k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $401k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $59k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($586k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $401,369 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,001,126
• List price: $623,000
• Delta: -37.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.51% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $303,707
• Equity at exit: $538,991

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $969,290
• Equity at exit: $1,139,458

Cash invested: $174,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94114

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Rents YoY: 14.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,267
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,436/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$843
• Net cashflow: $-559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,721

Max offer price $524,279

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-383	+0% $-559	+5% $-735	+10% $-912
Rent	-10% $-876	-5% $-717	+0% $-559	+5% $-400	+10% $-242
Rate	-1.0pp $-245	-0.5pp $-400	base $-559	+0.5pp $-720	+1.0pp $-885

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $155,750
• Closing costs: $18,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
457 Jersey St Unit 5 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$4,495	$6.42	6d	1	0.27mi
457 Jersey St Unit 5 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$4,495	$6.42	13d	1	0.27mi
1643 Castro St Apt 6 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	563	$3,695	$6.56	8d	1	0.33mi
1351-1373 Noe St Unit 1363 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	360	$2,395	$6.65	44d	1	0.40mi
1 Homestead San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$6,900	$9.20	25d	1	0.43mi
169 Fair Oaks St Unit 01 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$4,250	$5.67	44d	1	0.45mi
3410 22nd St Apt 6 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$4,500	$6.25	2d	1	0.49mi
940 Guerrero St Unit 02 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$4,295	$7.81	17d	1	0.50mi
940 Guerrero St Unit 06 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	520	$4,295	$8.26	25d	1	0.51mi
155 Eureka St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$4,300	$6.62	25d	1	0.57mi
155 Eureka St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$5,000	$6.67	44d	1	0.57mi
35 Hill St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	674	$3,500	$5.19	8d	1	0.59mi
257 San Jose Ave #1 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$2,999	$6.00	25d	1	0.60mi
3321 21st St Apt 2 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	350	$3,000	$8.57	3d	1	0.62mi
5285 Diamond Heights Blvd San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$4,297	$5.34	2d	5	0.68mi
3241 23rd St Unit 3245-4 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	450	$2,550	$5.67	14d	1	0.81mi
3140 21st St Unit 103 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	500	$2,795	$5.59	5d	1	0.84mi
2315 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	450	$2,995	$6.66	3d	1	0.86mi
2315 Mission St Unit 106 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	450	$2,995	$6.66	8d	1	0.86mi
3178 16th St Unit 1 San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	369	$2,375	$6.44	6d	1	0.94mi
799 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$3,800	$5.14	3d	2	0.99mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 106 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	718	$4,395	$6.12	18d	1	0.99mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 105 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	546	$3,100	$5.68	18d	1	0.99mi
2629 Folsom St Unit 204 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	718	$4,095	$5.70	44d	1	0.99mi
370 Upper Ter Unit 2 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$4,400	$6.29	18d	1	1.02mi
218 Winfield St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$3,200	$5.33	44d	1	1.04mi
1019 Ashbury St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	535	$3,790	$7.08	15d	1	1.10mi
429 14th St #1621 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$3,440	$6.88	44d	1	1.14mi
1600 15th St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$4,164	$5.25	4d	5	1.15mi
2874 16th St Unit 2872A San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	400	$2,450	$6.12	44d	1	1.18mi
270 Valencia St #205 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$3,800	$7.60	44d	1	1.19mi
1801 Mission St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	446	$10,000	$22.42	44d	1	1.24mi
742 Chenery St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$2,995	$3.99	25d	1	1.26mi
2823 18th St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	519	$4,718	$9.08	3d	4	1.32mi
155 Haight St San Francisco, CA	—	1.0	425	$2,295	$5.40	24d	1	1.41mi
68 McCoppin St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	734	$3,825	$5.21	17d	2	1.41mi
1000 Oak St Apt 7 San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	645	$3,995	$6.19	44d	1	1.43mi
1699 Market St San Francisco, CA	1.0	1.0	561	$4,817	$8.59	2d	5	1.45mi
211 Genebern Way Unit 1309729P San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	699	$7,773	$11.12	3d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $623,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $623,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $623,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $623,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $623,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $623,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $623,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $623,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $623,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $623,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $623,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $623,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $623,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $623,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $623,000 Active 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    This top-floor condominium can be purchased individually or as part of a rare three-residence offering, including 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, currently available together at a combined price of $2,500,000, or approximately $722 per square foot. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, presenting a unique opportunity for expanded investment, multi-generational living, or long-term value in one of San Francisco's most sought-after neighborhoods. Delivered vacant, and positioned at the top of a fully condo-converted building, this residence is delivered vacant and features a sizable private deck, offering strong indoor-outdoor potential. Offered as a fixer, it presents meaningful upside for an owner-user, contractor, or investor seeking to add value and customize a well-located asset. Situated in the heart of Noe Valley, moments from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, and the neighborhood's best cafes and boutiques.

16. 2026-02-12
    listed $580,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,436 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,735 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,299/yr (+$192/mo · 94.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,898
• − Property taxes: −$2,436
• − Insurance: −$3,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,853
• − Management: −$3,853
• − Depreciation: −$18,124
• Taxable loss: −$18,114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,347
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,020
• Household income: $204,134
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1336.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 14% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.51%
• Current HPI: 223.6988
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.40%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+7.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $623,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $580,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,436 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.