3379 Arcadia · Phelan, CA 92371

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 108 Days on market

Built 1988 2.00 ac lot $83/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 108 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.6% in Phelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,215 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $100k implies a 1011% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.26%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,992
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -71.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3425 Arcadia Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0	1,316 (+10%)	14mo	$79,000	$60	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $87,990
• Equity at exit: $66,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.67×
• Total profit: $214,706
• Equity at exit: $124,681

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92371

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,758/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-03-02
    listed $100,000 Active
15. 2026-01-13
    historical
16. 2025-12-01
    price $140,000
17. 2025-09-24
    price $155,000
18. 2025-07-14
    listed $175,000 Active
19. 2004-01-13
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,758 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,758 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 3 d/yr ≥96°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,758
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $9,418
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,260
• After-tax cash flow: $8,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Phelan

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1215
• US rank: #26148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phelan, CA
• City population: 21,678
• Population (ZIP): 21,678

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.62%
• Current HPI: 425.631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1011.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $100,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $140,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2004-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+30.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,758 · +330.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.