406 Pebblebrook Dr · Mount Juliet, TN 37122

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2024 LUXURY GREYSON HOME PRICED TO SELL SERIOUS BUYERS ONLY | HIGH DEMAND This 2024 Greyson manufactured home offers refined, modern living with high-end farmhouse finishes and smart-home features throughout. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,140 sq ft, this home delivers style, comfort, and efficiency at a level rarely available at this price. Located in Mount Juliet, TN The home is currently set in a community but can be purchased and moved to your own land or location of choice, giving buyers flexibility most listings dont offer. Luxury Features Include: Elevated farmhouse-style finishes throughout Ecobee smart thermostat (phone-controlled) Smart water heate

Key facts

• Smart-home features
• Smart water heater
• Built 2024

Tags

• HIGH-END FARMHOUSE FINISHES
• SMART-HOME FEATURES
• ECOBEE SMART THERMOSTAT
• SMART WATER HEATER
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT LIGHTING
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 25.9% vs local median 2.8% in Mount Juliet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#48 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wilson County (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #10 of 139 in TN (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 957 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,927 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.14%
• DSCR: 4.12
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $335,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4589 Boxcroft Cir	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,191 (+4%)	13mo	$350,000	$294	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $67,664
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.93×
• Total profit: $166,427
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37122

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 957
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $1,227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Providence Trl Mount Juliet, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$2,099	$1.92	12d	14	0.54mi
2500 Aventura Dr Mount Juliet, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,934	$1.84	2d	40	0.70mi
1125 Westwood Blvd Mt. Juliet, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1016	$2,265	$2.23	2d	22	0.86mi
2000 Buckhead Trl Mt. Juliet, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,899	$2.04	43d	17	0.88mi
1001 Providence Pkwy Mt. Juliet, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,914	$1.87	3d	18	1.00mi
630 Providence Trl Mt. Juliet, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,208	$2.03	1d	33	1.07mi
4675 Old Lebanon Dirt Rd Mount Juliet, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,706	$1.82	3d	4	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $75,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,121
• − Management: −$2,121
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $14,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,454
• After-tax cash flow: $11,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2024 Greyson manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and smart home features, making it a great investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both smart home integration — enhances comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both smart home integration — enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County
• NCES district ID: 4704550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,429
• Composite: 38.33/100
• National rank: #4225
• State rank: #10 of 139 in TN

Livability — Mount Juliet

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #7154

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Juliet, TN
• County: Wilson County · 144,921 people
• City population: 68,492
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 68,492
• Household income: $112,967
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 160,409 people
• By 2030: 176,099 · +9.8%
• By 2040: 206,769 · +28.9%
• By 2050: 235,383 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 302,144 · +88.4%
• By 2100: 343,710 · +114.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.1) · D 29.4% · R 69.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.6pp · 2024: -40.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.1 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+41.6 2008: R+36.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.85%
• Current HPI: 306.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $75,000 ForSaleByOwner.com