4226 Dawson Ln · Houston, TX 77051

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · Townhouse public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1955 3,484 sqft lot Est $122k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready 3-BR Home with a Backyard Covered Deck! Welcome home! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom residence has 891 square feet of efficient, comfortable living space. This home has been refreshed from top to bottom and is completely move-in ready. Interior Highlights: Fresh & Ready: The entire interior boasts brand-new paint and new carpeting throughout, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. Updated Bath: Enjoy a fully refreshed bathroom featuring newly installed vanity and toilet. Convenience Included: A stacked washer and dryer, refrigerator, and a microwave are included with the sale, making move-in day a breeze. Exterior & Outdoor Living: Step o

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Private backyard
• Microwave

Tags

• BAY YARD COVERED DECK
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• UPDATED BATH
• STACKED WASHER AND DRYER
• REFRIGERATOR
• MICROWAVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living areas and bedrooms)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1955; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen (12 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13.7 x 14); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 13 x 14)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; Primary bathroom on the first floor (4.5 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,907 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,120
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4322 Larkspur St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+6%)	21mo	$129,900	$142	44
4138 Larkspur St	0.50mi	3/1.0	944 (+10%)	19mo	$85,000	$90	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $88,260
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.56×
• Total profit: $257,029
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $194	+0% $155	+5% $115	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $105	+0% $155	+5% $204	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $190	base $155	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	0.07mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	12d	1	0.14mi
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	0.20mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	0d	2	0.36mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	19d	1	0.36mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	18d	1	0.49mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	45d	1	0.86mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	0.94mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	45d	1	1.04mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	45d	1	1.06mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	9d	1	1.07mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	1.09mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	14d	1	1.09mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	4d	2	1.11mi
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	6d	1	1.16mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	45d	1	1.26mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	14d	1	1.39mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	25d	1	1.45mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,982/yr (+$165/mo · 343.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$118
• After-tax cash flow: $1,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+172.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2004-11-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-08-15 Listed $55,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.