1003 Bayner Rd · Essex, MD 21221

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1963 2,070 sqft lot $129/sqft · 20% below area Est $187k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 1963 and located in the Fox Ridge Manor neighborhood, this attached rowhome offers approximately 1152 finished square feet, three bedrooms, one full and one half bath, unfinished basement and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 2070 sqft lot. This home is in need of repairs, needs new roof and basement has discoloration and evidence of moisture.

Key facts

• Built 1963
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Ownership: Fee simple; Total below-grade area: 576 (assessor); Above-grade finished area: 1,152 (assessor); Below-grade unfinished area: 576 (assessor)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: End of row townhouse
• Construction: Brick construction; Foundation: Brick/mortar and block; Above-grade finished area recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling heating; Cooling: Other (natural gas fuel); Heating fuel: Natural gas available / Natural gas; Hot water: Natural gas
• Interior features: Daylight, partial basement; Living area source: Assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.8% in Essex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.79%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,911
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -20.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
930 Foxwood Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	2mo	$210,000	$182	93
1022 Foxwood Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	5mo	$157,400	$137	85
1024 Foxridge Ln	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,152 (0%)	23mo	$235,000	$204	68
14 Lockett Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,188 (+3%)	15mo	$220,000	$185	60
12 Cloverwood Ct #302	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	997 (-14%)	3mo	$179,900	$180	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,056
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $36,341
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21221

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,199/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
951 Bayner Rd Unit 951 Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	0.03mi
1005 Kayden Ln Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	0.13mi
1022 Foxwood Ln Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,200	$1.91	16d	1	0.19mi
909 S Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	888	$1,775	$2.00	5d	1	0.22mi
1114 Tace Dr Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	796	$1,291	$1.62	2d	34	0.34mi
1207 Middleborough Rd Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,360	$1.60	5d	1	0.42mi
1302 Sugarwood Cir #102 Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	922	$1,800	$1.95	44d	1	0.44mi
21 Waterwood Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	809	$1,296	$1.60	12d	1	0.52mi
4 Banyan Wood Ct #103 Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	980	$1,700	$1.73	16d	1	0.55mi
1300 Middleborough Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	578	$1,365	$2.36	44d	1	0.61mi
710h Snowberry Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	544	$1,382	$2.54	5d	1	0.65mi
1103 Country Terrace Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	544	$1,308	$2.40	5d	1	0.68mi
1460 Hadwick Dr Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	661	$1,308	$1.98	5d	1	0.75mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	5d	1	0.84mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	3d	1	0.90mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	5d	1	0.90mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	5d	1	0.90mi
406 Essexwood Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,400	$1.88	44d	1	0.91mi
846 Brunswick Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	500	$1,272	$2.54	44d	42	0.98mi
846 Brunswick Rd Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	500	$1,241	$2.48	2d	49	0.98mi
2 Driftwood Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	720	$1,198	$1.66	3d	5	1.18mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	24d	1	1.37mi
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,195	$1.50	11d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-05-01
   listed $149,000 Active 547-char remark
8. 2025-11-21
   soldstatus $138,500 Closed 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Built in 1963 and located in the Fox Ridge Manor neighborhood, this attached rowhome offers approximately 1152 finished square feet, three bedrooms, one full and one half bath, unfinished basement and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 2070 sqft lot. This home is in need of repairs, needs new roof and basement has discoloration and evidence of moisture.

9. 2025-10-16
   status Pending 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Built in 1963 and located in the Fox Ridge Manor neighborhood, this attached rowhome offers approximately 1152 finished square feet, three bedrooms, one full and one half bath, unfinished basement and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 2070 sqft lot. This home is in need of repairs, needs new roof and basement has discoloration and evidence of moisture.

10. 2025-09-23
    listed $153,700 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Built in 1963 and located in the Fox Ridge Manor neighborhood, this attached rowhome offers approximately 1152 finished square feet, three bedrooms, one full and one half bath, unfinished basement and covered front porch. This home sits on an approximate 2070 sqft lot. This home is in need of repairs, needs new roof and basement has discoloration and evidence of moisture.

11. 2001-08-14
    soldstatus $79,500
12. 2001-07-31
    soldstatus $79,500
13. 2001-05-03
    historical
14. 2000-08-31
    listed $79,900
15. 1999-10-07
    historical
16. 1999-06-03
    listed
17. 1999-06-01
    historical
18. 1998-12-31
    listed
19. 1998-12-29
    historical
20. 1997-08-12
    listed
21. 1993-05-04
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,199
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $4,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $5,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Essex

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2277

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essex, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 43,487
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 43,487
• Household income: $67,340
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1757.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.14%
• Current HPI: 237.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+96.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-21 Sold (MLS) $138,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $153,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 2001-07-31 Sold (MLS) $79,500 MRIS
• 2001-05-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-08-31 Listed $79,900 MRIS
• 1999-10-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-06-03 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-06-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-12-31 Listed — MRIS
• 1998-12-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-08-12 Listed — MRIS
• 1993-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,199 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.