163 Niven Path Unit 12K · Sonterra, TX 76537

$178,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,339 sqft · Condo · 183 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $134/sqft · 30% below area Est $254k · 30% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming two-story home in the desirable Sonterra community of Jarrell, TX! Perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot just off Sonterra Blvd, this home offers both convenience and curb appeal. Its prime location places you just a short distance from the neighborhood park and community pool—ideal for enjoying outdoor activities and connecting with neighbors. Step inside to an inviting open-concept floor plan on the main level, where the living room, kitchen, and convenient half bath flow seamlessly together—perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms thoughtfully arranged along with two full bathrooms, providing a comfortable and private retreat for everyone in the household. The property also features a huge, fully fenced backyard—offering plenty of space for pets, play, gardening, or future outdoor enhancements. As an added bonus, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale, making this home truly move-in ready! Don’t miss the opportunity to own this well-located and beautifully functional home in one of Jarrell’s most welcoming communities.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Easy commute
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• EASY COMMUTE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.4% in Sonterra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,511 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,154
• List price: $178,990
• Delta: -29.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Moonstone Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	2mo	$209,500	$162	76
105 Guardian Angel Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+18%)	0mo	$245,000	$155	60
621 Amber Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,183 (-12%)	0mo	$205,000	$173	54
120 Star Packer Ln	0.87mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+5%)	1mo	$215,499	$153	53
165 Wyatt Way	1.48mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+7%)	0mo	$229,435	$160	51
524 Shimek St Unit 15A	0.88mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+8%)	1mo	$215,000	$149	49
121 Rowdy Yates Way	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-8%)	2mo	$195,000	$158	49
576 Greatest Gift Way	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,658 (+24%)	0mo	$234,900	$142	47
468 Josey Wales Dr	0.97mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+11%)	2mo	$272,900	$184	43
112 Allington Cir	1.16mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+15%)	0mo	$205,000	$133	38
133 Dupont Pass	1.45mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+15%)	0mo	$199,000	$130	38
309 W Avenue H Ave	1.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (+13%)	2mo	$300,000	$198	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-26,253
• Equity at exit: $26,688

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-32,544
• Equity at exit: $15,476

Cash invested: $50,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $178,990

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $186	+0% $124	+5% $62	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $54	+0% $124	+5% $194	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $169	base $124	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,748
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Ibis Falls Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	100d	1	0.04mi
401 Hyacinth Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,745	$0.97	116d	1	0.04mi
616 Sonterra Blvd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,750	$1.03	110d	1	0.10mi
676 Yearwood Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,539	$1.15	139d	1	0.14mi
101 Kildeer Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,900	$1.12	42d	1	0.14mi
208 Kildeer Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,695	$1.03	42d	1	0.15mi
685 Yearwood Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,595	$1.04	7d	1	0.15mi
5033 Cressler Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,575	$1.18	70d	1	0.16mi
1140 Ibis Falls Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,650	$1.06	7d	1	0.24mi
104 Green Jay Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1733	$1,850	$1.07	77d	1	0.24mi
217 Denson Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1466	$1,495	$1.02	24d	1	0.26mi
217 Denson Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	1505	$1,495	$0.99	3d	1	0.26mi
105 Guardian Angel Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	7d	1	0.28mi
105 Comet Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1616	$1,750	$1.08	42d	1	0.30mi
518 Woodpecker Run Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,695	$1.03	139d	1	0.32mi
241 Moonstone Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,675	$1.39	10d	1	0.32mi
400 Major Lee Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,550	$1.24	42d	1	0.32mi
400 Major Lee Ln Unit 3H Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,550	$1.24	24d	1	0.32mi
236 Moonstone Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,450	$1.31	64d	1	0.34mi
100 Granville Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,700	$1.19	119d	1	0.35mi
317 Moonstone Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,650	$1.49	78d	1	0.36mi
829 Ibis Falls Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	88d	1	0.37mi
112 Sandstone Dr Unit G Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,269	$0.73	10d	1	0.38mi
329 Flower Smith Ln Unit 20B Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,650	$1.20	24d	1	0.38mi
400 Captain Grumbles Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,550	$1.06	119d	1	0.38mi
225 Rainey Dr Unit 73A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,495	$0.91	24d	1	0.40mi
301 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,850	$1.28	139d	1	0.40mi
301 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,595	$1.10	56d	1	0.41mi
301 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,850	$1.28	113d	1	0.41mi
205 Athena Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,600	$1.16	42d	1	0.41mi
209 Athena Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,439	$1.19	119d	1	0.41mi
126 Sandstone Dr Unit D Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,300	$0.75	88d	1	0.43mi
126 Sandstone Dr Unit F Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1730	$1,350	$0.78	42d	1	0.43mi
126 Sandstone Dr Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,400	$0.81	42d	1	0.43mi
225 Rainey Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,595	$0.97	42d	1	0.43mi
200 Sandstone Dr Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,450	$0.84	119d	1	0.43mi
200 Sandstone Dr Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,450	$0.84	76d	1	0.43mi
417 Sapphire Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,499	$0.98	119d	1	0.44mi
248 Coal Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1745	$1,795	$1.03	80d	1	0.45mi
337 Wonderful Life Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,650	$1.17	10d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail $37/mo · $444/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $178,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $178,990 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $178,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $178,990 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $178,990 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $178,990 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $178,990 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $178,990 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $178,990 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $178,990 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $178,990 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $178,990 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $178,990 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $178,990 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $179,190 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $179,190 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $179,190 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $179,390 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $179,390 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    price $179,390 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $179,490 Active 157 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $179,490 Active 156 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $179,590 Active 155 DOM
24. 2026-08-26
    days on market $179,590 Active 154 DOM
25. 2026-08-25
    price $179,590 Active 153 DOM
26. 2026-08-25
    days on market $179,690 Active 153 DOM
27. 2026-08-24
    days on market $179,690 Active 152 DOM
28. 2026-08-23
    pricedays on market $179,690 Active 151 DOM
29. 2026-08-22
    days on market $179,790 Active 150 DOM
30. 2026-08-21
    days on market $179,790 Active 149 DOM
31. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $179,790 Active 148 DOM
32. 2026-08-19
    days on market $179,890 Active 147 DOM
33. 2026-08-18
    days on market $179,890 Active 146 DOM
34. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $179,890 Active 145 DOM
35. 2026-08-16
    days on market $179,900 Active 144 DOM
36. 2026-08-15
    days on market $179,900 Active 143 DOM
37. 2026-08-14
    days on market $179,900 Active 142 DOM
38. 2026-08-13
    days on market $179,900 Active 141 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $179,900 Active 139 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $179,900 Active 138 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $179,900 Active 137 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    statusdays on market $179,900 Active 136 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 133 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 132 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 128 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 127 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 126 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 125 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,026
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$1,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $1,827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,695–$20,085 screening

This charming two-story home in Sonterra, TX, is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonterra, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $215,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $223,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $224,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $225,000 Unlock MLS