163 Niven Path Unit 12K · Sonterra, TX 76537

$189,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,339 sqft · Condo · 85 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $142/sqft · 26% below area Est $257k · 26% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming two-story home in the desirable Sonterra community of Jarrell, TX! Perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot just off Sonterra Blvd, this home offers both convenience and curb appeal. Its prime location places you just a short distance from the neighborhood park and community pool—ideal for enjoying outdoor activities and connecting with neighbors. Step inside to an inviting open-concept floor plan on the main level, where the living room, kitchen, and convenient half bath flow seamlessly together—perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms thoughtfully arranged along with two full bathrooms, providing a comfortable and private retreat for everyone in the household. The property also features a huge, fully fenced backyard—offering plenty of space for pets, play, gardening, or future outdoor enhancements. As an added bonus, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale, making this home truly move-in ready! Don’t miss the opportunity to own this well-located and beautifully functional home in one of Jarrell’s most welcoming communities.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Easy commute
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• EASY COMMUTE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($549/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Sonterra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,673 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,211
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -26.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,002
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-44,795
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,709

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Ibis Falls Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	4d	1	0.04mi
401 Hyacinth Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,745	$0.97	20d	1	0.04mi
616 Sonterra Blvd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,750	$1.03	14d	1	0.10mi
676 Yearwood Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,539	$1.15	43d	1	0.14mi
5033 Cressler Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,595	$1.19	4d	1	0.16mi
217 Denson Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1466	$1,595	$1.09	17d	1	0.26mi
518 Woodpecker Run Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,695	$1.03	43d	1	0.32mi
100 Granville Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,700	$1.19	23d	1	0.35mi
400 Captain Grumbles Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,550	$1.06	23d	1	0.38mi
301 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,850	$1.28	43d	1	0.40mi
301 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,850	$1.28	17d	1	0.41mi
209 Athena Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,439	$1.19	23d	1	0.41mi
126 Sandstone Dr Unit F Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1730	$1,450	$0.84	23d	1	0.43mi
126 Sandstone Dr Unit D Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,325	$0.77	2d	1	0.43mi
200 Sandstone Dr Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,450	$0.84	23d	1	0.43mi
417 Sapphire Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,499	$0.98	23d	1	0.44mi
140 Calcite Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,650	$1.18	23d	1	0.46mi
140 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,749	$1.10	17d	1	0.46mi
212 Sandstone Dr Unit G Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,350	$0.78	12d	1	0.47mi
220 Sandstone Dr Apt E Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,550	$0.90	23d	1	0.48mi
220 Sandstone Dr Unit C Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,500	$0.87	2d	1	0.48mi
220 Sandstone Dr Apt A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,450	$0.99	2d	1	0.48mi
220 Sandstone Dr Apt E Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,595	$0.92	43d	1	0.48mi
505 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,600	$1.15	43d	1	0.50mi
221 Koontz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,750	$1.13	4d	1	0.50mi
509 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,700	$1.17	17d	1	0.50mi
224 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,475	$1.30	20d	1	0.54mi
Cressler Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,600	$1.19	43d	1	0.55mi
545 Greatest Gift Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,650	$1.14	43d	1	0.57mi
350 Bedford Falls Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,925	$1.14	17d	1	0.61mi
364 Bell Rings Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,650	$1.01	43d	1	0.66mi
145 Miracle Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,525	$1.26	4d	1	0.73mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	19d	1	0.76mi
108 Igneous Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,800	$1.17	12d	1	0.81mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,745	$0.95	4d	1	0.82mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	10d	1	0.82mi
100 Zayd Ct Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,600	$1.05	43d	1	0.89mi
105 Zayd Ct Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,600	$1.04	43d	1	0.90mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	17d	1	0.90mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	20d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,990 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,990 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,990 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,990 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,990 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    price $199,999 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-story home in the desirable Sonterra community of Jarrell, TX! Perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot just off Sonterra Blvd, this home offers both convenience and curb appeal. Its prime location places you just a short distance from the neighborhood park and community pool—ideal for enjoying outdoor activities and connecting with neighbors. Step inside to an inviting open-concept floor plan on the main level, where the living room, kitchen, and convenient half bath flow seamlessly together—perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms thoughtfully arranged along with two full bathrooms, providing a comfortable and private retreat for everyone in the household. The property also features a huge, fully fenced backyard—offering plenty of space for pets, play, gardening, or future outdoor enhancements. As an added bonus, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale, making this home truly move-in ready! Don’t miss the opportunity to own this well-located and beautifully functional home in one of Jarrell’s most welcoming communities.

15. 2026-04-14
    price $215,000 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-story home in the desirable Sonterra community of Jarrell, TX! Perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot just off Sonterra Blvd, this home offers both convenience and curb appeal. Its prime location places you just a short distance from the neighborhood park and community pool—ideal for enjoying outdoor activities and connecting with neighbors. Step inside to an inviting open-concept floor plan on the main level, where the living room, kitchen, and convenient half bath flow seamlessly together—perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms thoughtfully arranged along with two full bathrooms, providing a comfortable and private retreat for everyone in the household. The property also features a huge, fully fenced backyard—offering plenty of space for pets, play, gardening, or future outdoor enhancements. As an added bonus, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale, making this home truly move-in ready! Don’t miss the opportunity to own this well-located and beautifully functional home in one of Jarrell’s most welcoming communities.

16. 2026-04-10
    price $223,000 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-story home in the desirable Sonterra community of Jarrell, TX! Perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot just off Sonterra Blvd, this home offers both convenience and curb appeal. Its prime location places you just a short distance from the neighborhood park and community pool—ideal for enjoying outdoor activities and connecting with neighbors. Step inside to an inviting open-concept floor plan on the main level, where the living room, kitchen, and convenient half bath flow seamlessly together—perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms thoughtfully arranged along with two full bathrooms, providing a comfortable and private retreat for everyone in the household. The property also features a huge, fully fenced backyard—offering plenty of space for pets, play, gardening, or future outdoor enhancements. As an added bonus, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale, making this home truly move-in ready! Don’t miss the opportunity to own this well-located and beautifully functional home in one of Jarrell’s most welcoming communities.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $224,000 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-story home in the desirable Sonterra community of Jarrell, TX! Perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot just off Sonterra Blvd, this home offers both convenience and curb appeal. Its prime location places you just a short distance from the neighborhood park and community pool—ideal for enjoying outdoor activities and connecting with neighbors. Step inside to an inviting open-concept floor plan on the main level, where the living room, kitchen, and convenient half bath flow seamlessly together—perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms thoughtfully arranged along with two full bathrooms, providing a comfortable and private retreat for everyone in the household. The property also features a huge, fully fenced backyard—offering plenty of space for pets, play, gardening, or future outdoor enhancements. As an added bonus, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale, making this home truly move-in ready! Don’t miss the opportunity to own this well-located and beautifully functional home in one of Jarrell’s most welcoming communities.

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $225,000 Active 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this charming two-story home in the desirable Sonterra community of Jarrell, TX! Perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot just off Sonterra Blvd, this home offers both convenience and curb appeal. Its prime location places you just a short distance from the neighborhood park and community pool—ideal for enjoying outdoor activities and connecting with neighbors. Step inside to an inviting open-concept floor plan on the main level, where the living room, kitchen, and convenient half bath flow seamlessly together—perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms thoughtfully arranged along with two full bathrooms, providing a comfortable and private retreat for everyone in the household. The property also features a huge, fully fenced backyard—offering plenty of space for pets, play, gardening, or future outdoor enhancements. As an added bonus, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale, making this home truly move-in ready! Don’t miss the opportunity to own this well-located and beautifully functional home in one of Jarrell’s most welcoming communities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$625
• After-tax cash flow: $1,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming two-story home in Sonterra, TX, is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonterra, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $215,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $223,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $224,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $225,000 Unlock MLS