204 Herbert St · Auburndale, FL 33823

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 9,984 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home located in Auburndale! This home is close to shopping, restaurants, and ALL that Auburndale has to offer. AC was replaced in 2020 and a new roof will be done July 2021. You'll appreciate the vinyl plank flooring, inside laundry, and dual sinks in the master bath! Don't wait to make your appointment to see this one today!

Key facts

• 9,984 sq ft lot
• Built 2006
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.42%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $15,962
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $64,691
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,777/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,289

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $676	-5% $637	+0% $597	+5% $558	+10% $519
Rent	-10% $436	-5% $517	+0% $597	+5% $678	+10% $759
Rate	-1.0pp $667	-0.5pp $633	base $597	+0.5pp $561	+1.0pp $525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Madalyn Ct Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,950	$1.32	15d	1	0.21mi
651 Duncan Cir W Auburndale, FL	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,595	$1.41	24d	1	1.34mi
727 Chestnut Ln Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,900	$1.16	11d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2025-11-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-30
   listed $139,000 Active
3. 2021-07-26
   soldstatus $141,500
4. 2021-07-14
   soldstatus $141,500 Closed 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   Welcome to your 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home located in Auburndale! This home is close to shopping, restaurants, and ALL that Auburndale has to offer. AC was replaced in 2020 and a new roof will be done July 2021. You'll appreciate the vinyl plank flooring, inside laundry, and dual sinks in the master bath! Don't wait to make your appointment to see this one today!

5. 2021-05-10
   status Pending 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   Welcome to your 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home located in Auburndale! This home is close to shopping, restaurants, and ALL that Auburndale has to offer. AC was replaced in 2020 and a new roof will be done July 2021. You'll appreciate the vinyl plank flooring, inside laundry, and dual sinks in the master bath! Don't wait to make your appointment to see this one today!

6. 2021-05-10
   listed $140,000 Active 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   Welcome to your 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home located in Auburndale! This home is close to shopping, restaurants, and ALL that Auburndale has to offer. AC was replaced in 2020 and a new roof will be done July 2021. You'll appreciate the vinyl plank flooring, inside laundry, and dual sinks in the master bath! Don't wait to make your appointment to see this one today!

7. 2017-05-04
   soldstatus $85,900
8. 2017-05-03
   soldstatus $85,900 Sold 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Check out this home just steps away from Lake Ariana! Beautiful move in ready 3 bedroom - 2 bath home. This property has many new upgrades - spacious kitchen with open island overlooking your living room - master bedroom features a gorgeous garden tub and separate shower- home is split plan - entire home is fenced in for complete privacy - you have your own oasis outside - completely secluded -must see to appreciate this home!

9. 2017-04-05
   status Pending 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Check out this home just steps away from Lake Ariana! Beautiful move in ready 3 bedroom - 2 bath home. This property has many new upgrades - spacious kitchen with open island overlooking your living room - master bedroom features a gorgeous garden tub and separate shower- home is split plan - entire home is fenced in for complete privacy - you have your own oasis outside - completely secluded -must see to appreciate this home!

10. 2017-03-13
    soldstatus $20,000
11. 2016-12-16
    listed $85,900 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Check out this home just steps away from Lake Ariana! Beautiful move in ready 3 bedroom - 2 bath home. This property has many new upgrades - spacious kitchen with open island overlooking your living room - master bedroom features a gorgeous garden tub and separate shower- home is split plan - entire home is fenced in for complete privacy - you have your own oasis outside - completely secluded -must see to appreciate this home!

12. 2015-10-13
    soldstatus $29,000 Sold
13. 2015-09-04
    status Pending
14. 2015-09-01
    price $33,200
15. 2015-08-21
    status Active
16. 2015-08-20
    historical
17. 2015-07-25
    status Active
18. 2015-07-24
    historical
19. 2015-07-17
    status Active
20. 2015-07-15
    historical
21. 2015-06-19
    listed $38,200 Active
22. 2013-09-10
    historical
23. 2012-11-26
    listed $40,000
24. 2012-11-26
    historical
25. 2012-02-13
    listed $67,500
26. 2006-05-03
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,777 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,777 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,777
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $5,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,275
• After-tax cash flow: $5,894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $141,500 Public Records
• 2021-07-14 Sold (MLS) $141,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $85,900 Public Records
• 2017-05-03 Sold (MLS) $85,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-16 Listed $85,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-13 Sold (MLS) $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-01 Price Changed $33,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-19 Listed $38,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-26 Listed $40,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-13 Listed $67,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,777 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.