310 County Road 263 · Lakehills, TX 78056

$350,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1978 0.92 ac lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Amazing opportunity to own a lakefront home below market value! As Lake Medina rises, so will the value of this unique property! Meanwhile, sit out back on the extensive deck and enjoy the gorgeous hill country views! Complete privacy! Property being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Extensive deck
• Complete privacy
• Lakefront home

Tags

• LAKEFRONT HOME
• EXTENSIVE DECK
• GORGEOUS HILL COUNTRY VIEWS
• COMPLETE PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No down payment assistance indicated
• HOA & community: Waterfront access community

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Septic system; Electric water heater
• Home design: Siding exterior; Metal roof; Pre-owned home; Approximately 48 years old; Located in the West Shore subdivision
• Construction: Siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck / balcony; Storage building / shed; Mature trees; Boathouse and dock; Improved lake frontage and water access; Sloping terrain; County road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (18 x 15) with split layout, walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and full bath; Bedroom 2 (15 x 9); Bedroom 3 (13 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Total of 3 bathrooms (2 full, 1 half); Master bath (13 x 12) with double vanity, whirlpool/garden tub and tub-only option
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Separate dining room; Game room; Workshop; Utility room inside; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; All window coverings remain; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room (7 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.2% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $144 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,263 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-17,595
• Equity at exit: $102,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $21,043
• Equity at exit: $123,601

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78056

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,593/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,992

Max offer price $327,700

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $-27	+0% $-126	+5% $-225	+10% $-324
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-238	+0% $-126	+5% $-14	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-37	base $-126	+0.5pp $-217	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $350,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 New 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 New 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 New 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 New 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 New 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $350,000 New
16. 2022-01-06
    soldstatus
17. 2019-12-04
    soldstatus
18. 2011-07-27
    historical
19. 2010-09-27
    listed $549,000
20. 2010-09-27
    historical
21. 2009-04-01
    listed $555,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,593 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,812/yr (+$151/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,593
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,719
• − Management: −$2,719
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$7,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,819
• After-tax cash flow: $304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 2,431

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 7% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 219.5947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $350,000 LERA
• 2022-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2010-09-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2010-09-27 Listed $549,000 LERA
• 2009-04-01 Listed $555,000 LERA

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,593 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.